DAVAO CITY — Several areas in Mindanao are expected to experience unsettled weather over the next 24 hours as a shearline continues to affect parts of the Caraga Region, while localized thunderstorms prevail across the rest of the island, according to the latest regional weather forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
In its 5:00 a.m. forecast on February 3, 2026, PAGASA said the Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and Surigao del Sur will experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and isolated thunderstorms due to the shearline. Authorities warned residents in these areas of the possible occurrence of flash floods and landslides, particularly in low-lying and mountainous communities, as moderate to at times heavy rains may persist.
The shearline, a weather system formed by the convergence of cold and warm air masses, often brings prolonged rainfall and unstable weather conditions, especially along eastern Mindanao.
Thunderstorms Across Mindanao
Meanwhile, most other parts of Mindanao—including Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM)—will generally experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms caused by localized thunderstorm activity.
PAGASA cautioned that severe thunderstorms could still trigger localized flooding or landslides, particularly in areas with poor drainage systems or those near riverbanks.
Strong Winds, Rough Seas in Eastern Sections
Weather conditions at sea are expected to be hazardous in several areas, especially along the eastern seaboard of Mindanao.
PAGASA reported that moderate to strong winds from the northeast will prevail over the eastern section of Mindanao, resulting in moderate to rough sea conditions, with wave heights ranging from 1.2 to 3.4 meters. These conditions may affect coastal waters of Davao Region, Caraga, and parts of Northern Mindanao, posing risks to small fishing boats and other light marine vessels.
In contrast, the rest of Mindanao will experience light to moderate winds coming from the northeast to north, with slight to moderate seas measuring around 0.6 to 2.5 meters.
Regional Temperature Outlook
Temperatures across Mindanao will remain relatively warm despite intermittent rains:
- Zamboanga Peninsula: around 22°C to 33°C
- Northern Mindanao: as low as 18°C in Bukidnon, up to 32°C
- Davao Region: between 24°C and 33°C
- SOCCSKSARGEN: reaching up to 34°C
- Caraga Region: cooler ranges of 22°C to 30°C
- BARMM provinces: generally 21°C to 34°C
PAGASA Advisory
PAGASA urged local government units, disaster risk reduction offices, and residents to remain vigilant, especially in areas identified as landslide- and flood-prone. Fisherfolk and small vessel operators are likewise advised to avoid sailing in rough sea conditions, particularly along the eastern coast of Mindanao.
For updates and advisories, the public is encouraged to monitor official PAGASA channels or visit bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph.