GENERAL SANTOS CITY, Philippines — Most of Mindanao is expected to experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and localized thunderstorms over the next 24 hours, with the state weather bureau warning communities to remain alert for possible flash floods and landslides during severe thunderstorms.
In its Regional Weather Forecast for Mindanao (MINPRSD) issued at 5:00 a.m. on September 11, 2026, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the forecast is valid from 5:00 a.m. Friday until 5:00 a.m. Saturday.
The weather pattern is expected across the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
PAGASA said skies across the region will generally be partly cloudy, becoming cloudy at times, with rainshowers or thunderstorms possible in various areas.
While the forecast calls for generally light to moderate winds, severe thunderstorms could still produce intense rainfall over localized areas. PAGASA specifically warned of the potential for flash floods and landslides, particularly in communities vulnerable to sudden heavy rain, including low-lying areas, waterways and landslide-prone slopes.
Temperatures could reach 36°C
Several areas of Mindanao are expected to experience daytime temperatures reaching 35°C to 36°C, despite the possibility of thunderstorms.
The highest forecast maximum temperatures are 36°C in Surigao del Sur, Dinagat Islands, Maguindanao del Norte and Maguindanao del Sur.
Temperatures could reach 35°C in Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, Isabela City, Camiguin, Metro Davao, Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao de Oro, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi.
Other areas are forecast to reach between 33°C and 34°C, while Bukidnon could see temperatures ranging from 19°C to 34°C, making it one of the cooler areas in the regional forecast.
During the overnight and early morning period, temperatures are expected to ease, with minimum temperatures generally ranging from 23°C to 33°C. Bukidnon could fall to as low as 19°C, while areas such as Tawi-Tawi are forecast to remain relatively warm at 27°C to 32°C.
Zamboanga Peninsula
Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay and Isabela City are all forecast to have partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy at times, with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures are expected to reach 34°C in the afternoon in the provinces and city, while overnight temperatures are generally forecast between 24°C and 31°C, with Zamboanga City ranging from 25°C to 31°C.
Winds will be light to moderate from the south to southwest, while coastal waters are expected to remain slight to moderate.
Northern Mindanao
Across Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental, similar conditions are expected, with localized rainshowers and thunderstorms possible throughout the forecast period.
Camiguin could reach 35°C, while Misamis Occidental and Bukidnon could reach 34°C. Lanao del Norte and Misamis Oriental are forecast to reach 33°C.
Coastal waters in Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental are expected to be slight to moderate, with winds generally coming from the south to southwest at light to moderate strength.
Davao Region
The Davao Region is also expected to remain vulnerable to localized thunderstorms.
Metro Davao, Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur and Davao de Oro could reach 35°C, while Davao Oriental and Davao Occidental could reach 33°C.
Davao del Sur is forecast to have temperatures between 23°C and 35°C during the daytime, while Davao Oriental could range from 22°C to 33°C.
The same south-to-southwest wind pattern is expected, with slight to moderate coastal conditions in the areas where coastal forecasts are provided.
SOCCSKSARGEN
In North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat and Sarangani, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms are expected.
North Cotabato could reach 34°C, while South Cotabato and Sultan Kudarat are forecast to reach 33°C and 34°C, respectively. Sarangani could reach 34°C.
Temperatures are expected to drop to around 30°C to 31°C overnight.
The forecast also calls for light to moderate winds from the south to southwest. Coastal areas of South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat and Sarangani are expected to experience slight to moderate seas.
Caraga
The weather bureau expects thunderstorms and rainshowers across Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Dinagat Islands.
Temperatures could climb to 35°C in Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur and Surigao del Norte, while Surigao del Sur and Dinagat Islands could reach 36°C.
Overnight temperatures are forecast to remain between 25°C and 33°C, depending on the locality.
Coastal waters in Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Dinagat Islands are expected to be slight to moderate.
BARMM areas also under thunderstorm watch
The forecast covers Cotabato City, Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao del Norte and Maguindanao del Sur, all of which may experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
The warmest conditions are expected in Maguindanao del Norte and Maguindanao del Sur, where temperatures could reach 36°C during the daytime.
Sulu and Tawi-Tawi could reach 35°C, while Cotabato City and Basilan could reach 34°C.
Lanao del Sur is forecast to reach 33°C, with overnight temperatures falling to around 30°C.
Coastal areas across much of BARMM are expected to experience slight to moderate seas, with light to moderate winds from the south to southwest.
PAGASA urges vigilance during severe thunderstorms
Although the regional forecast does not indicate continuous widespread rain across Mindanao, the possibility of localized thunderstorms means weather conditions can change rapidly in affected areas.
Thunderstorms can bring sudden heavy rainfall, strong winds and lightning within a relatively short period. Such conditions can cause rapid rises in waterways and trigger flooding or landslides, particularly in areas already vulnerable to runoff and slope instability.
Residents in flood-prone and landslide-prone communities are therefore advised to closely monitor official weather and disaster bulletins, particularly when thunderstorms develop in their areas.
Motorists should also exercise caution when traveling during heavy rain because sudden downpours can reduce visibility and create hazardous road conditions.
For communities near rivers, creeks and other waterways, residents should remain alert for rapidly rising water levels. People living near steep or unstable slopes should likewise watch for signs of possible ground movement during or after periods of intense rainfall.
Seas remain slight to moderate
PAGASA forecast slight to moderate seas measuring around 0.6 to 1.8 meters in areas covered by the coastal forecast.
While these conditions are not classified as stormy seas, fishermen, boat operators and other coastal communities are advised to consider actual weather conditions before going out to sea, particularly when thunderstorms are developing.
PAGASA reminded the public that localized thunderstorms can produce sudden changes in weather even when the broader regional forecast remains relatively favorable.
The public may monitor updated weather information and advisories through PAGASA’s official channels and website as conditions evolve.
The forecast was issued by PAGASA’s Mindanao Regional Services Division (MINPRSD) in El Salvador City, Misamis Oriental, at 5:00 a.m. Friday, September 11, 2026, and is valid until 5:00 a.m. Saturday, September 12.