MINDANAO, Philippines — Cloudy skies, scattered rains and thunderstorms are expected across Mindanao on Sunday, October 25, as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) continues to influence the region’s weather, prompting warnings of possible flash floods and landslides in areas affected by moderate to at times heavy rainfall.
In its regional weather forecast issued at 5 a.m. on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), through its Mindanao regional forecasting unit (MINPRSD), said the forecast would remain valid until 5 a.m. on Monday, October 26.
The weather disturbance is expected to affect communities across the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, the Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
PAGASA warned that moderate to occasionally heavy rains could trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in low-lying communities, flood-prone locations and areas near steep slopes or previously saturated ground.
Residents were advised to remain alert for sudden changes in weather conditions, especially during thunderstorms and periods of persistent rainfall. Local disaster risk reduction and management offices are also encouraged to monitor vulnerable areas and disseminate timely warnings as conditions develop.
Zamboanga Peninsula to experience widespread rain and thunderstorms
Zamboanga City and the provinces of Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga Sibugay, as well as Isabela City, are forecast to experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms throughout the forecast period.
Temperatures in Zamboanga City are expected to range from 25°C to 32°C, while Zamboanga del Norte and Zamboanga Sibugay may experience temperatures of 25°C to 31°C. Isabela City is also forecast to record temperatures of 25°C to 31°C.
Zamboanga del Sur is expected to be relatively cooler, with temperatures ranging from 24°C to 30°C.
Light to moderate winds from the southeast to south are forecast across the peninsula, with coastal waters generally expected to remain slight to moderate.
Northern Mindanao braces for rainy conditions
Cloudy skies, rain showers and thunderstorms are also forecast across Northern Mindanao, including Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental.
Bukidnon is expected to record temperatures ranging from 20°C to 29°C, making it one of the cooler areas in the regional forecast. Camiguin, Lanao del Norte and Misamis Occidental may experience temperatures of 24°C to 29°C, while Misamis Oriental is forecast to have warmer conditions, with temperatures ranging from 26°C to 32°C.
Although winds are expected to remain light to moderate, intermittent downpours could still cause localized flooding, particularly in communities with poor drainage or areas near rivers and waterways.
Coastal waters in Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental are forecast to be slight to moderate.
Davao Region faces thunderstorms, with Sarangani among the warmer areas
Metro Davao and the provinces of Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro and Davao Occidental are expected to experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
Metro Davao may record temperatures between 27°C and 31°C, while Davao del Norte is forecast to experience temperatures of 25°C to 32°C. Davao del Sur may have temperatures ranging from 24°C to 30°C.
Davao Oriental is expected to be cooler, with temperatures between 23°C and 28°C. Davao de Oro may experience temperatures of 23°C to 29°C, while Davao Occidental is forecast to range from 25°C to 31°C.
In neighboring SOCCSKSARGEN, Sarangani is expected to record temperatures of 26°C to 33°C. North Cotabato may experience temperatures of 24°C to 31°C, South Cotabato 24°C to 31°C, and Sultan Kudarat 23°C to 30°C.
Rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the entire SOCCSKSARGEN area. Coastal waters in the region’s coastal provinces are expected to be slight to moderate.
Caraga to see cloudy skies and thunderstorms
Rain showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the Caraga Region, including Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and the Dinagat Islands.
Agusan del Norte is forecast to experience temperatures ranging from 26°C to 31°C, while Agusan del Sur may record temperatures of 24°C to 32°C.
Surigao del Norte and the Dinagat Islands are expected to have temperatures between 26°C and 29°C, while Surigao del Sur may experience temperatures of 26°C to 30°C.
The previous regional forecast issued at 5 p.m. on Saturday indicated that Agusan del Sur and Surigao del Sur could experience partly cloudy skies, becoming cloudy at times, with rain showers or thunderstorms. The same earlier forecast also indicated partly cloudy conditions at times in parts of the Bangsamoro region.
However, the Sunday morning forecast indicates a broader expectation of cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms across the listed areas.
Coastal conditions in Surigao del Sur were forecast to be moderate to rough in the earlier bulletin, while most other listed coastal areas were expected to experience slight to moderate seas. The Sunday morning bulletin generally indicates slight to moderate coastal waters for the areas covered in its provincial listings.
BARMM provinces also forecast to experience rainy weather
Across the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms are expected in Cotabato City, Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao del Norte and Maguindanao del Sur.
Cotabato City may experience temperatures ranging from 24°C to 29°C, while Basilan is forecast to record temperatures of 23°C to 30°C. Lanao del Sur may experience temperatures of 23°C to 29°C.
In the island provinces, Sulu is expected to have temperatures between 25°C and 30°C, while Tawi-Tawi may record temperatures of 26°C to 30°C.
Maguindanao del Norte is forecast to experience temperatures ranging from 25°C to 33°C, while Maguindanao del Sur may record temperatures of 24°C to 32°C.
Light to moderate winds from the southeast to south are expected, with coastal waters generally forecast to remain slight to moderate.
The combination of thunderstorms and potentially heavy rainfall means residents in flood-prone communities and landslide-susceptible areas should remain alert, particularly when rain persists over several hours.
Light to moderate winds, slight to moderate seas
Across Mindanao, PAGASA forecasts light to moderate winds blowing from the southeast to south, with sea conditions generally ranging from slight to moderate and wave heights of approximately 0.6 to 2.5 meters under the regional outlook.
While these conditions are not uniformly indicative of dangerous seas, conditions may vary by location and may change during thunderstorms. Fisherfolk, operators of small vessels and other coastal communities should continue monitoring official marine weather advisories and local warnings before undertaking sea travel.
The public should also avoid crossing flooded roads and waterways, particularly when water levels are rising or currents are strong. Residents in mountainous and landslide-prone communities should watch for warning signs such as unusual ground movement, cracks in slopes, falling rocks or sudden changes in water flow.
PAGASA’s regional forecast covers the period from 5 a.m. Sunday until 5 a.m. Monday. Residents are encouraged to monitor subsequent weather bulletins and advisories from PAGASA and their respective local disaster risk reduction and management offices for updates.