MINDANAO — September 22, 2026 — Several areas across Mindanao are expected to experience rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday, September 22, with the Caraga Region and Davao Oriental facing the most persistent weather conditions as the trough of a Low Pressure Area (LPA) affects the region.
According to the 05:00 AM regional weather forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao PRSD (MINPRSD), Caraga and Davao Oriental will have cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms from 5:00 AM Tuesday until 5:00 AM Wednesday.
The weather agency warned that flash floods and landslides are possible in these areas due to moderate to at times heavy rains, particularly in locations where rainfall becomes persistent or intense.
The rest of Mindanao will generally experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms. PAGASA also warned of possible flash floods and landslides due to severe thunderstorms, particularly in areas that receive intense rainfall over a short period.
Caraga and Davao Oriental Face More Persistent Rain
The trough of the LPA is expected to maintain wetter conditions over Caraga and Davao Oriental.
Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Dinagat Islands are all forecast to experience cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms.
Agusan del Norte is expected to see temperatures ranging from 26°C to 32°C, increasing to as high as 34°C in the succeeding period. Agusan del Sur may range from 24°C to 33°C, with temperatures reaching up to 35°C.
Surigao del Norte is forecast to have temperatures between 22°C and 30°C, while Surigao del Sur may range from 23°C to 29°C. Dinagat Islands is expected to record temperatures of 24°C to 29°C.
Davao Oriental will likewise remain under cloudy conditions with rainshowers and thunderstorms, with temperatures expected between 22°C and 29°C, rising to around 31°C during the succeeding forecast period.
Residents in flood-prone communities, low-lying areas and locations near steep or unstable slopes are advised to remain alert, particularly when thunderstorms produce prolonged or heavy rainfall.
Rainshowers and Thunderstorms Elsewhere in Mindanao
The rest of Mindanao will generally have partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies, with rainshowers or thunderstorms possible during the forecast period.
Across the Zamboanga Peninsula, Zamboanga City and the provinces of Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga Sibugay are forecast to experience partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Zamboanga City and Zamboanga del Norte may see temperatures from 25°C to 32°C, while Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga Sibugay may range from 24°C to 31°C. Temperatures could rise to between 33°C and 34°C during the succeeding period.
Isabela City is expected to experience similar conditions, with temperatures ranging from 25°C to 32°C, increasing to as high as 33°C.
In Northern Mindanao, Bukidnon is forecast to record temperatures of 20°C to 30°C, while Lanao del Norte could range from 21°C to 31°C. Misamis Occidental is expected to see 22°C to 31°C, while Misamis Oriental may range from 25°C to 31°C.
Camiguin is forecast to remain partly cloudy to cloudy with rainshowers or thunderstorms, with temperatures between 26°C and 32°C and potentially reaching 34°C.
Davao Region to See Thunderstorm Activity
Most areas of the Davao Region will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Metro Davao is forecast to have temperatures of 26°C to 31°C, increasing to about 33°C during the succeeding forecast period.
Davao del Norte and Davao del Sur may experience temperatures ranging from 24°C to 31°C, with maximum temperatures reaching about 33°C.
Davao Oriental will differ from most of the region, with cloudy skies, rainshowers and thunderstorms directly associated with the trough of the LPA.
The earlier 05:00 PM forecast issued Monday also indicated similar wet conditions across Davao de Oro and Davao Occidental, with temperatures expected to reach up to 34°C and 33°C, respectively.
SOCCSKSARGEN, BARMM Also Face Isolated Thunderstorms
Areas across SOCCSKSARGEN are likewise expected to have partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
North Cotabato is forecast to range from 23°C to 31°C, while South Cotabato may see 24°C to 30°C. Sultan Kudarat is expected to record 23°C to 31°C, while Sarangani may range from 25°C to 32°C.
Maximum temperatures during the succeeding forecast period could reach 33°C in North Cotabato and Sultan Kudarat, 32°C in South Cotabato, and 34°C in Sarangani.
In the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Cotabato City, Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao del Norte and Maguindanao del Sur are all forecast to experience partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures will generally range from the lower 20s to the low 30s, with some areas potentially reaching 34°C during the latter part of the forecast period.
Lanao del Sur is expected to be among the cooler areas, with temperatures ranging from 21°C to 29°C, while Tawi-Tawi may range from 27°C to 31°C.
Winds and Coastal Conditions
PAGASA said light to moderate winds from the southwest to northwest will prevail across Mindanao.
Coastal waters are expected to remain slight to moderate, with wave heights generally ranging from 0.6 to 1.8 meters.
The conditions may still produce locally rougher waters during thunderstorms, particularly in areas directly affected by heavy rain and gusty winds associated with thunderstorms.
Fisherfolk, boat operators and other coastal communities are advised to monitor local weather conditions before venturing into open waters, particularly when thunderstorms are developing nearby.
Residents Urged to Monitor Thunderstorm Warnings
PAGASA’s warning on possible flash floods and landslides highlights the need for heightened vigilance in vulnerable communities, especially where heavy rainfall occurs over a short period.
Thunderstorms can develop rapidly and may bring intense rain, sudden gusty winds and frequent lightning, even in areas that initially experience only partly cloudy skies.
Residents in flood-prone and landslide-prone areas should closely monitor official weather advisories and follow instructions from local disaster risk reduction and management offices if conditions deteriorate.
Motorists should also exercise caution on roads affected by heavy rain, reduced visibility or temporary flooding.
The forecast is valid from 5:00 AM September 22 until 5:00 AM September 23, 2026, based on the regional forecast issued by PAGASA-MINPRSD.
Forecast source: Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) – Mindanao PRSD.