MINDANAO — September 21, 2026 — Widespread partly cloudy to cloudy skies, intermittent rainshowers and localized thunderstorms are expected across Mindanao over the next 24 hours, with the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warning that severe thunderstorms could trigger flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.
The latest Mindanao Regional Weather Forecast (MINPRSD) was issued at 5:00 a.m. on September 21, 2026, and is valid from 5:00 a.m. Monday until 5:00 a.m. Tuesday, September 22.
PAGASA’s regional forecast identifies localized thunderstorms affecting Mindanao as the prevailing weather condition. Most areas are expected to experience partly cloudy skies that may become cloudy at times, accompanied by rainshowers or thunderstorms.
The weather disturbance is not expected to produce continuous rainfall across the entire island. However, localized thunderstorms can develop rapidly, bringing periods of heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning over affected communities.
Flash Flood and Landslide Risk
PAGASA specifically warned of the possibility of flash floods and landslides due to severe thunderstorms.
The threat is particularly important in areas near rivers, creeks and waterways, as well as communities situated along steep slopes, mountainous terrain and locations with a history of flooding or rain-induced landslides.
Residents are advised to remain alert when thunderstorms develop in their areas, particularly during periods of intense rainfall. Motorists should also exercise caution because sudden downpours can reduce visibility and cause water to accumulate rapidly on roads.
Local disaster risk reduction and management offices are likewise expected to monitor weather conditions and developments in their respective areas, particularly where communities are vulnerable to flooding and landslides.
Zamboanga Peninsula
Across the Zamboanga Peninsula, Zamboanga City and the provinces of Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga Sibugay are expected to experience partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Zamboanga City is forecast to have temperatures ranging from 22°C to 32°C, while Zamboanga del Norte may experience 26°C to 32°C.
Zamboanga del Sur is expected to range between 23°C and 32°C, while Zamboanga Sibugay may see temperatures of 25°C to 31°C.
Isabela City is forecast to experience temperatures between 25°C and 32°C.
Winds across the peninsula are expected to be light to moderate from the south to southwest, while coastal waters will remain slight to moderate.
Northern Mindanao
In Northern Mindanao, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental are likewise expected to experience partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Bukidnon is forecast to have temperatures between 20°C and 31°C, making it one of the cooler areas in the regional forecast.
Camiguin may experience temperatures ranging from 27°C to 34°C, while Lanao del Norte is expected to be cooler at 21°C to 28°C.
Misamis Occidental is forecast to range from 26°C to 31°C, while Misamis Oriental may experience temperatures between 26°C and 31°C.
The same south-to-southwest wind pattern is expected across the region, with slight to moderate coastal conditions in areas covered by the coastal forecast.
Davao Region
The Davao Region will also remain under a similar weather pattern, with partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy at times and isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms possible.
Metro Davao is forecast to experience temperatures from 26°C to 31°C.
Davao del Norte may see temperatures between 24°C and 32°C, while Davao del Sur is expected to range from 23°C to 31°C.
Davao Oriental is forecast to have temperatures between 22°C and 29°C, while Davao de Oro may experience 23°C to 31°C.
Davao Occidental is expected to range from 25°C to 31°C.
For the following forecast period, daytime temperatures in several parts of the region could rise into the low to mid-30s Celsius, despite the continued possibility of thunderstorms.
SOCCSKSARGEN
In SOCCSKSARGEN, North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat and Sarangani are also expected to experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
North Cotabato is forecast to record temperatures between 25°C and 32°C, while South Cotabato may range from 24°C to 31°C.
Sultan Kudarat is expected to experience 23°C to 31°C, while Sarangani may range from 24°C to 32°C.
As in other parts of Mindanao, winds are expected to remain light to moderate and generally blow from the south to southwest.
Caraga Region
The entire Caraga Region is also included in the thunderstorm forecast.
Agusan del Norte is expected to experience temperatures from 26°C to 32°C, while Agusan del Sur may range from 24°C to 32°C.
Surigao del Norte is forecast to see 26°C to 32°C, while Surigao del Sur may experience 25°C to 31°C.
The Dinagat Islands are expected to have temperatures between 27°C and 32°C.
Residents in coastal and low-lying areas should remain attentive to sudden changes in weather as thunderstorms may develop locally even when conditions appear relatively fair earlier in the day.
BARMM
Several areas of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) are likewise expected to experience the same partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Cotabato City is forecast to range from 23°C to 31°C, while Basilan may experience temperatures between 23°C and 32°C.
Lanao del Sur is expected to range from 23°C to 30°C, while Sulu may experience 25°C to 32°C.
Tawi-Tawi is forecast to have temperatures between 26°C and 32°C.
Maguindanao del Norte may range from 24°C to 32°C, while Maguindanao del Sur is expected to experience 25°C to 32°C.
The forecast calls for light to moderate winds from the south to southwest across these areas, with coastal waters generally slight to moderate.
Coastal Conditions
PAGASA expects slight to moderate seas, with wave heights generally ranging from 0.6 to 1.8 meters across the affected coastal areas.
The south-to-southwest wind flow is expected to remain light to moderate. Fisherfolk, boat operators and other coastal communities are nevertheless advised to monitor the latest local weather advisories, particularly when thunderstorms are developing near their areas.
Sudden thunderstorms can produce stronger winds and rougher conditions locally than the prevailing regional forecast may suggest.
Temperatures Could Reach 36°C
Although thunderstorms and rainshowers are expected, several areas could still experience warm to hot conditions during periods when rainfall is absent.
Among the highest forecast temperatures are in Camiguin, where temperatures could reach 36°C during the following forecast period. Several other provinces, including Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, Isabela City, Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, South Cotabato, Sarangani, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte and several BARMM areas, could also reach the 33°C to 34°C range.
This combination of daytime heat and localized thunderstorms may result in rapidly changing weather conditions, with sunshine giving way to heavy rain and thunderstorms within a relatively short period.
Public Urged to Monitor Local Advisories
PAGASA’s forecast emphasizes that the thunderstorms are localized, meaning conditions can vary significantly between neighboring communities.
Residents should therefore avoid relying solely on conditions observed in their immediate surroundings and should continue monitoring official weather bulletins, thunderstorm advisories and warnings issued by PAGASA and local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
Communities in flood-prone and landslide-prone locations are particularly urged to remain vigilant when heavy rainfall persists.
PAGASA’s latest MINPRSD forecast remains valid until 5:00 a.m. on September 22, 2026, subject to succeeding weather updates and advisories.
For the latest official forecasts and weather information, the public is advised to monitor PAGASA bulletins and advisories through its official channels.