MINDANAO, Philippines — Mindanao will experience generally partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with a continuing possibility of rainshowers and localized thunderstorms over the next 24 hours, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
The regional weather forecast issued by the PAGASA Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MINPRSD) at 5:00 a.m. on August 19, 2026, is valid until 5:00 a.m. on August 20 and covers the entire Mindanao region, including areas of the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
PAGASA said isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms are expected across Mindanao, with conditions potentially becoming severe in some areas.
The weather agency warned that flash floods and landslides may occur in areas affected by severe thunderstorms, particularly where heavy rainfall develops over a short period. Residents in flood-prone communities, low-lying areas and locations near steep slopes are advised to remain alert whenever thunderstorms occur.
Stronger winds and rougher seas in eastern Mindanao
One of the most significant features of the forecast is the expected increase in wind and sea conditions over the eastern section of Mindanao.
PAGASA said moderate to strong winds from the south to southwest will prevail over eastern Mindanao, accompanied by moderate to rough seas with wave heights of 1.5 to 2.8 meters.
The conditions will be most pronounced in parts of the Davao and Caraga regions, where several provinces are expected to experience moderate to strong southwesterly winds and moderate to rough coastal waters.
The forecast places Davao Oriental, Davao Occidental, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Dinagat Islands among the areas where stronger winds and more challenging sea conditions are expected.
These conditions could affect fishing activities, small boats and other sea-based operations, particularly during periods of stronger winds and thunderstorms.
For the rest of Mindanao, PAGASA expects light to moderate winds from the south to southwest, with generally slight to moderate seas ranging from 0.6 to 2.5 meters.
Zamboanga Peninsula
The Zamboanga Peninsula will generally experience partly cloudy skies that may become cloudy at times, with rainshowers or thunderstorms possible.
In Zamboanga City, temperatures are forecast to range from 26°C to 32°C during the initial forecast period and could reach 35°C in the succeeding period.
Zamboanga del Norte may see temperatures between 25°C and 30°C, rising to as high as 33°C, while Zamboanga del Sur is forecast at 24°C to 30°C, with temperatures potentially reaching 33°C.
Zamboanga Sibugay is expected to record 25°C to 30°C, rising to around 33°C, while Isabela City may experience temperatures from 25°C to 31°C, increasing to approximately 34°C.
Winds across these areas are expected to remain light to moderate from the south to southwest, with slight to moderate coastal conditions.
Northern Mindanao
Across Northern Mindanao, partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms are likewise expected.
Bukidnon will have one of the cooler temperature ranges in the region, with temperatures expected between 19°C and 29°C, increasing to as high as 32°C.
Camiguin may experience temperatures from 26°C to 32°C, with a possible high of 34°C, while Lanao del Norte is forecast at 26°C to 31°C, rising to around 33°C.
In Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental, moderate southwesterly winds and moderate coastal conditions are expected. Both provinces are forecast to experience temperatures of around 25°C to 31°C, with highs reaching approximately 34°C.
The combination of moderate winds, cloudy periods and thunderstorms may produce sudden changes in local weather, especially during the development of stronger thunderstorms.
Davao Region faces stronger winds in eastern and western areas
The Davao Region will also remain vulnerable to localized thunderstorms throughout the forecast period.
Metro Davao is expected to experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms and temperatures between 27°C and 33°C.
Davao del Norte is forecast to record 26°C to 31°C, rising to 33°C, while Davao del Sur may experience 25°C to 31°C, with highs reaching around 33°C.
More challenging conditions are expected in Davao Oriental, where PAGASA forecasts moderate to strong southwesterly winds and moderate to rough seas. Temperatures are expected to range from 26°C to 31°C, increasing to approximately 33°C.
The previous regional forecast also placed Davao Occidental under moderate to strong southwesterly winds and moderate to rough seas. Temperatures there are expected to range from 24°C to 30°C, with highs reaching around 32°C.
Caraga likely to see rough coastal conditions
The Caraga region will be among the areas experiencing stronger winds and more significant sea conditions.
Agusan del Norte is forecast to have temperatures from 26°C to 33°C, with highs reaching approximately 35°C. Moderate to strong winds from the south to southwest and moderate to rough seas are expected.
Agusan del Sur, which has no coastal condition listed in the forecast, is expected to experience moderate to strong southwesterly winds, with temperatures ranging from 25°C to 33°C and potentially reaching 35°C.
In Surigao del Norte, temperatures may range from 25°C to 33°C, rising to 35°C, while Surigao del Sur is forecast at 25°C to 32°C, with highs reaching 34°C.
Both provinces are expected to experience moderate to strong southwesterly winds and moderate to rough seas.
The Dinagat Islands will likewise experience moderate to strong winds and moderate to rough seas. Temperatures are forecast between 27°C and 33°C, with highs potentially reaching 35°C.
SOCCSKSARGEN to experience thunderstorms and warm afternoons
In SOCCSKSARGEN, the weather will remain generally partly cloudy to cloudy, with rainshowers or thunderstorms possible.
North Cotabato is expected to record temperatures between 24°C and 31°C, rising to around 33°C.
South Cotabato may experience temperatures from 23°C to 31°C, increasing to approximately 33°C, while Sultan Kudarat is forecast at 24°C to 31°C, with highs reaching around 33°C.
Sarangani is expected to see temperatures ranging from 24°C to 30°C, with highs of around 32°C.
Winds in these areas are generally expected to be light to moderate from the south to southwest. Slight to moderate coastal conditions are forecast in the coastal provinces.
BARMM remains under thunderstorm watch
Areas across BARMM will likewise experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with possible rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Cotabato City is forecast to experience temperatures between 23°C and 32°C, with highs reaching approximately 34°C.
Basilan may see temperatures from 25°C to 31°C, increasing to around 33°C, while Lanao del Sur is expected to remain relatively cooler, with temperatures ranging from 23°C to 29°C and highs of approximately 31°C.
In the island provinces, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi are both forecast to experience temperatures between 25°C and 31°C, with highs reaching around 33°C. Light to moderate southwesterly winds and slight to moderate coastal conditions are expected.
Maguindanao del Norte may experience temperatures from 24°C to 34°C, with highs reaching approximately 35°C, while Maguindanao del Sur is forecast at 25°C to 33°C, with temperatures potentially reaching 35°C.
Thunderstorms remain the main weather hazard
While the regional forecast does not indicate widespread continuous rainfall across Mindanao, PAGASA’s warning regarding localized thunderstorms remains significant.
Thunderstorms can develop rapidly and produce intense rainfall, strong wind gusts and lightning even when surrounding areas remain relatively dry or partly cloudy.
The possibility of flash floods and landslides due to severe thunderstorms means communities should not rely solely on the absence of persistent rain as an indication of safe conditions.
Local government disaster risk reduction offices and communities in flood- and landslide-prone areas are urged to closely monitor weather developments, particularly when dark clouds, strong winds, thunder and rapidly intensifying rainfall begin to develop.
Motorists should also exercise caution during sudden heavy rain because reduced visibility, slippery roads and localized flooding can develop quickly.
Maritime activities urged to exercise caution
The forecast’s most notable concern for coastal communities is the 1.5- to 2.8-meter sea conditions expected over eastern Mindanao.
Fishing communities and operators of small boats should take particular care when planning trips, especially in areas where moderate to strong winds and thunderstorms may occur simultaneously.
Sea conditions can deteriorate quickly during thunderstorms, even in areas where the general coastal forecast is otherwise classified as slight to moderate.
PAGASA’s forecast remains valid through the early morning of August 20, and conditions may vary considerably from one locality to another because of the localized nature of thunderstorms.
Residents and local authorities are therefore advised to continue monitoring official weather bulletins and local advisories for possible changes in rainfall, wind and sea conditions.