BUTUAN CITY — Residents across Mindanao should expect generally fair weather interrupted by localized rain showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours, according to the latest Regional Weather Forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao Regional Services Division (MINPRSD).
The weather bulletin, issued at 5:00 a.m. on July 16, 2026, states that the entire Mindanao island will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or localized thunderstorms from 5:00 a.m. Thursday until 5:00 a.m. Friday.
While widespread heavy rainfall is not expected, PAGASA cautioned that severe thunderstorms may trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in low-lying, flood-prone, and mountainous areas.
Localized thunderstorms remain the primary weather threat
According to PAGASA, the expected weather pattern is typical during the rainy season, with daytime heating and moisture from prevailing winds creating conditions favorable for the development of thunderstorms across various parts of Mindanao.
These thunderstorms may produce:
- Brief but intense rainfall;
- Frequent lightning;
- Strong gusty winds; and
- Reduced visibility that could affect road travel and marine activities.
Authorities advised the public to remain vigilant, especially during the afternoon and evening when localized thunderstorms are more likely to develop.
Light to moderate winds, generally calm seas
Across Mindanao, light to moderate winds blowing from the south to southwest will prevail, while areas in the Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and Isabela City may experience winds coming from the southeast to south.
Sea conditions throughout the island are expected to remain slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 2.1 meters, making conditions generally favorable for small fishing vessels and other sea craft. However, mariners are still advised to exercise caution whenever thunderstorms develop over coastal waters due to the possibility of sudden rough seas and strong winds.
Warm daytime temperatures expected
Most provinces across Mindanao are forecast to record daytime temperatures ranging between 31°C and 35°C, while nighttime and early morning temperatures will generally fall between 19°C and 26°C.
Among the forecast temperatures:
- Zamboanga del Norte could reach as high as 35°C, making it one of the warmest areas in Mindanao.
- Zamboanga City, South Cotabato, North Cotabato, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, and Davao de Oro may experience highs of 34°C.
- Cooler conditions are expected in the highlands of Bukidnon, where temperatures may range from 19°C to 32°C, and Lanao del Sur, where temperatures may range from 21°C to 29°C.
Rain showers possible across all Mindanao regions
PAGASA’s forecast indicates that nearly all provinces in the following regions may experience occasional rain showers or thunderstorms:
- Zamboanga Peninsula
- Northern Mindanao
- Davao Region
- SOCCSKSARGEN
- Caraga Region
- Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM)
Affected areas include Zamboanga City, Isabela City, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Cotabato City, the provinces of Maguindanao del Norte and Maguindanao del Sur, as well as the provinces throughout Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, and SOCCSKSARGEN.
Only Camiguin is expected to experience periods of partly cloudy skies with relatively lower chances of thunderstorms during portions of the forecast period, although isolated rain showers remain possible.
Public advised to remain alert
PAGASA urged residents to continue monitoring official weather updates, especially those living near rivers, coastal communities, and landslide-prone mountain areas.
Motorists are likewise advised to drive cautiously during heavy downpours due to slippery roads and reduced visibility, while outdoor activities should be suspended immediately whenever thunder and lightning are observed.
Although no tropical cyclone is currently affecting Mindanao directly, localized thunderstorms remain capable of producing significant rainfall within a short period, making preparedness essential despite generally fair weather conditions across the region.