A regional weather bulletin issued at 5:00 AM on March 4 by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warns that several parts of Mindanao will experience unstable weather conditions over the next 24 hours, with cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms affecting multiple provinces.
According to the forecast, the provinces of Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands are expected to bear the brunt of the weather disturbance due to prevailing easterlies—warm winds blowing from the Pacific Ocean that carry moisture toward eastern sections of the country. These areas will likely experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall that could trigger flash floods or landslides, particularly in low-lying and mountainous communities.
PAGASA advised residents in these provinces to remain alert, especially during periods of intense rainfall, as localized flooding and soil erosion may occur.
Generally Fair but Unsettled Weather in the Rest of Mindanao
While eastern Mindanao faces heavier rains, the rest of the island will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, also caused by easterlies. Weather disturbances may still become severe at times, and authorities caution that flash floods or landslides remain possible during strong thunderstorms.
Across most provinces, winds are expected to be light to moderate coming from the northeast to north, with coastal waters ranging from slight to moderate, with wave heights between 0.6 and 2.5 meters.
Zamboanga Peninsula Outlook
In Zamboanga City and nearby provinces across the Zamboanga Peninsula, including Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, and Isabela City, residents can expect partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with occasional rain showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures across the peninsula are forecast to range roughly between 21°C and 35°C, depending on the province and time of day. Coastal waters will remain slight to moderate, posing minimal risk to small fishing vessels, though sudden thunderstorms may still affect sea conditions.
Northern Mindanao Conditions
Provinces in Northern Mindanao, including Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Misamis Oriental, will also experience similar weather patterns—partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms throughout the day.
Temperatures in these areas are expected to range between 20°C and 33°C, with moderate winds and manageable coastal conditions.
Davao Region Forecast
In the Davao Region, including Davao City and nearby provinces such as Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao Occidental, the weather will remain generally fair but unstable. Intermittent thunderstorms may develop, especially in the afternoon or evening.
Temperature ranges across the region are forecast between 23°C and 34°C, while coastal waters remain slight to moderate.
SOCCSKSARGEN and BARMM Areas
In the SOCCSKSARGEN region—covering North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, and Sarangani—residents should also anticipate partly cloudy to cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms, with temperatures ranging from 22°C to 34°C.
Meanwhile, areas under the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), including Cotabato City, Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao del Norte, and Maguindanao del Sur will experience similar conditions with occasional rain showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures in these areas may reach up to 35°C during warmer periods.
Advisory to the Public
PAGASA urges residents across Mindanao to remain cautious, particularly in flood-prone and landslide-prone areas, as thunderstorms may intensify suddenly. Fisherfolk and small seacraft operators are also advised to monitor weather updates before venturing out to sea due to shifting winds and occasional rougher waters during storms.
Authorities continue to monitor the situation and encourage the public to stay updated through official weather bulletins and local disaster risk reduction offices.