October 3, 2025 – Davao City
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced that as of 3:00 AM today, Severe Tropical Storm “Paolo” (international name Matmo) was estimated at 215 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora, or 160 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora. The storm carries maximum sustained winds of 100 kilometers per hour near the center, with gusts reaching up to 125 kph. It is moving west-northwestward at 20 kph, threatening to bring heavy rains to parts of Luzon.
For Mindanao, however, PAGASA said Paolo will not directly affect the island group. Instead, residents can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms due to localized thunderstorms. The state weather bureau warned that flash floods or landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorms, especially in flood-prone and mountainous areas.
Winds and Seas
Moderate winds from the southeast to south will prevail over the eastern sections of Mindanao, bringing moderate seas ranging from 1.2 to 2.5 meters. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds from the southeast to southwest will bring slight to moderate seas of 0.6 to 1.5 meters.
Regional Forecast Highlights
- Zamboanga Peninsula – Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Norte, del Sur, Sibugay, and Isabela City will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms. Temperatures will range between 23°C and 34°C, with light to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.
- Northern Mindanao – Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Misamis Oriental will also experience partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with thunderstorms. Temperatures range from 20°C to 32°C. Coastal waters will be slight to moderate.
- Davao Region – Metro Davao, Davao del Norte, del Sur, de Oro, Occidental, and Oriental can expect warm days with intermittent thunderstorms. Davao Oriental and Occidental will have moderate winds from the southeast to south, causing moderate seas. Temperatures range from 22°C to 34°C.
- SOCCSKSARGEN – North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, and Sarangani will see similar conditions, with temperatures between 21°C and 33°C. Light to moderate winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas.
- Caraga Region – Agusan del Norte and Sur, Surigao del Norte and Sur, and Dinagat Islands will experience partly cloudy skies with thunderstorms. Winds from the southeast to south will be moderate, with coastal seas ranging from slight to moderate. Temperatures are forecast at 22°C to 33°C.
- Bangsamoro Autonomous Region (BARMM) – Cotabato City, Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao del Norte and del Sur, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi will have partly cloudy skies with localized thunderstorms. Temperatures will range from 20°C to 33°C, with seas remaining slight to moderate.
PAGASA Advisory
Forecasters emphasized that while Mindanao is spared from Paolo’s direct impact, residents should remain alert for heavy downpours, flooding, and possible landslides during thunderstorms. Fisherfolk and those with small sea vessels are also advised to take caution, especially along the eastern seaboard of Mindanao where moderate seas are expected.
For more information and real-time updates, PAGASA urged the public to follow official advisories via bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or contact their hotlines at (02) 8922-1992 and 8927-1335.