July 9, 2026
Mindanao is expected to experience widespread rains, thunderstorms, and rough sea conditions over the next 24 hours as the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat), strengthened by Super Typhoon “Inday” (International name: Bavi), continues to affect large portions of the island, according to the latest regional weather forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
As of 3:00 PM on July 8, the center of the eye of Super Typhoon Inday was estimated at approximately 1,195 kilometers east of Northern Luzon (17.0°N, 132.9°E). The powerful cyclone packs maximum sustained winds of 195 kilometers per hour, gustiness of up to 240 kilometers per hour, and is moving westward at 20 kilometers per hour.
Although the super typhoon remains far from Mindanao, PAGASA said it is significantly enhancing the Southwest Monsoon, resulting in unstable weather conditions across much of the Visayas and Mindanao.
Heavy Rains Expected in Western and Southern Mindanao
PAGASA forecasts that the Zamboanga Peninsula, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Lanao del Norte, Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani, and South Cotabato will experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms brought about by the Southwest Monsoon.
Weather forecasters warned that moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall may trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in low-lying communities, flood-prone areas, and mountainous terrain.
Residents are advised to remain vigilant, monitor weather advisories, and prepare for possible localized flooding and travel disruptions, especially during periods of intense rainfall.
Rest of Mindanao to Experience Intermittent Rainshowers
Meanwhile, the rest of Mindanao—including the provinces of Bukidnon, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, the Davao Region, North Cotabato, and the Caraga Region—will generally experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms.
While rainfall is expected to be less widespread in these areas, PAGASA cautioned that severe thunderstorms may still produce heavy downpours capable of causing localized flash floods and landslides.
Moderate to Strong Southwest Winds
Across Mindanao, moderate to strong winds blowing from the southwest are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period.
Sea conditions along the island’s coastal waters will remain moderate to rough, with wave heights ranging from 1.2 to 3.1 meters.
Fisherfolk operating small fishing boats and operators of other small sea vessels are advised to exercise extreme caution before venturing out to sea due to potentially hazardous marine conditions.
Weather Outlook by Region
The Zamboanga Peninsula, including Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, and Isabela City, is forecast to experience persistent cloudy skies accompanied by rainshowers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will range from 23°C to 32°C, depending on the locality.
In Northern Mindanao, Lanao del Norte will also experience cloudy skies with frequent rainshowers, while Bukidnon, Camiguin, Misamis Occidental, and Misamis Oriental will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with intermittent thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to range between 22°C and 32°C.
The Davao Region will generally have partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with occasional rainshowers and thunderstorms. However, Davao Occidental is expected to experience more widespread rainfall. Daytime temperatures across the region will range from 24°C to 33°C.
In SOCCSKSARGEN, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, and Sarangani are forecast to experience cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms, while North Cotabato will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainfall. Temperatures will range from 24°C to 34°C.
The Caraga Region, including Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands, will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms. Maximum temperatures may reach 35°C in portions of Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur despite the rainy conditions.
Across BARMM, including Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao del Norte, Maguindanao del Sur, and Cotabato City, cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the forecast period. Temperatures are expected to range from 19°C in the highlands of Lanao del Sur to 32°C in other parts of the region.
Public Advisory
PAGASA urges residents across Mindanao to closely monitor official weather bulletins as weather conditions may change rapidly with the continued influence of Super Typhoon Inday and the Southwest Monsoon.
Communities in areas susceptible to flooding and landslides are encouraged to remain alert and heed advisories from local disaster risk reduction and management offices. Motorists should also exercise caution when traveling through flood-prone roads, while coastal communities and fisherfolk are advised to avoid unnecessary sea travel during periods of rough seas.
Authorities continue to monitor the movement of Super Typhoon Inday as it traverses the Philippine Sea, while weather agencies expect the enhanced Southwest Monsoon to continue bringing rains over Mindanao in the coming days.