GENERAL SANTOS CITY — Mindanao will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and localized thunderstorms from Monday, September 14, to Tuesday morning, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao Regional Services Division (MINPRSD).
The regional weather forecast, issued at 5:00 a.m. on September 14, 2026, is valid from 5:00 a.m. Monday until 5:00 a.m. Tuesday, September 15, covering provinces and areas across the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
PAGASA warned that flash floods and landslides are possible in areas affected by severe thunderstorms, making localized weather conditions a concern for communities, motorists, coastal residents and commuters throughout the day.
The forecast comes as the Bangsamoro region holds its first parliamentary election on Monday, placing additional importance on weather conditions that could affect voter mobility and access to polling places, particularly in areas vulnerable to flooding, landslides and difficult road conditions.
Widespread risk of rain and thunderstorms
PAGASA said virtually all areas covered by the MINPRSD forecast may experience partly cloudy skies that could become cloudy at times, accompanied by rainshowers or thunderstorms.
The agency cautioned that while rainfall may be isolated or localized, severe thunderstorms could produce sudden heavy downpours, increasing the risk of flash flooding and landslides in vulnerable locations.
Communities near rivers, creeks, waterways and steep or unstable slopes are particularly advised to remain alert when thunderstorms develop.
Motorists and commuters are likewise urged to exercise caution, especially where heavy rain may rapidly reduce visibility or cause temporary flooding along roads.
Zamboanga Peninsula
Across the Zamboanga Peninsula, Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay and Isabela City are expected to experience partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Winds will generally be light to moderate from the northeast to northwest, while coastal waters will remain slight to moderate.
Temperatures are expected to range from 23°C to 32°C, depending on the locality and time of day, with Zamboanga del Norte and Zamboanga Sibugay reaching as high as 33°C during the forecast period.
Northern Mindanao
In Northern Mindanao, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental are also expected to experience partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Bukidnon will have temperatures ranging from 20°C to 30°C, while Camiguin could reach 33°C.
Lanao del Norte and Misamis Occidental may see temperatures of 23°C to 31°C, while Misamis Oriental is forecast to range from 24°C to 31°C.
Winds will generally be light to moderate from the northeast to northwest. Coastal waters in areas with exposed coastlines are expected to remain slight to moderate.
Davao Region
The entire Davao Region covered by the forecast—including Metro Davao, Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro and Davao Occidental—is expected to experience similar conditions.
Partly cloudy to cloudy skies, rainshowers and thunderstorms are forecast throughout the period.
Temperatures may reach 34°C in Davao del Norte and Davao del Sur, while Davao de Oro and Davao Oriental could reach 34°C and 32°C, respectively.
Metro Davao is expected to experience temperatures between 24°C and 32°C, while Davao Occidental could range from 23°C to 32°C.
Light to moderate winds from the northeast to northwest are expected, with slight to moderate coastal conditions.
SOCCSKSARGEN
In North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat and Sarangani, partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms are also expected.
Temperatures in North Cotabato may range from 23°C to 32°C, while South Cotabato is forecast to remain relatively cooler, with temperatures between 20°C and 30°C.
Sultan Kudarat may experience temperatures from 23°C to 32°C, while Sarangani is expected to range from 24°C to 32°C.
The weather situation may produce sudden heavy rainfall in some areas, particularly where thunderstorms become severe.
Caraga
Across Caraga, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Dinagat Islands are expected to experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Agusan del Norte may see temperatures ranging from 25°C to 33°C, while Agusan del Sur could reach 34°C.
Surigao del Norte is forecast to range from 26°C to 34°C, while Surigao del Sur may experience temperatures as high as 35°C.
Dinagat Islands could see temperatures between 25°C and 34°C.
Coastal waters are expected to remain slight to moderate, with light to moderate northeast-to-northwest winds.
BARMM areas also under thunderstorm watch
The weather outlook also covers several areas of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, including Cotabato City, Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao del Norte and Maguindanao del Sur.
All these areas are expected to experience partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Cotabato City may see temperatures ranging from 25°C to 32°C, while Basilan could reach 32°C.
Lanao del Sur is forecast to remain cooler, with temperatures between 22°C and 30°C.
Sulu may reach 34°C, while Tawi-Tawi is forecast to range from 27°C to 34°C.
Maguindanao del Norte may experience temperatures of 24°C to 34°C, while Maguindanao del Sur could reach 35°C.
Winds across most BARMM areas are expected to be light to moderate from the northeast to northwest. Tawi-Tawi is forecast to have light to moderate winds from the northwest during the earlier portion of the forecast period before shifting to northeast-to-northwest winds.
Voters urged to remain weather-aware
With the Bangsamoro Parliamentary Election scheduled for September 14, localized thunderstorms and possible heavy rainfall could present additional challenges for voters, election personnel, security forces and commuters in vulnerable communities.
The PAGASA forecast does not indicate that all areas will experience continuous rainfall. Instead, weather conditions may vary significantly from one locality to another because the expected rainshowers and thunderstorms are isolated or localized.
However, PAGASA’s warning regarding possible flash floods and landslides associated with severe thunderstorms means communities should not underestimate sudden changes in weather conditions.
Voters traveling to polling places in flood-prone or landslide-prone areas are advised to monitor official weather and local disaster-risk information, particularly when thunderstorms develop.
Drivers should also exercise additional caution on roads affected by heavy rain, reduced visibility or temporary flooding.
Coastal areas
PAGASA forecasts slight to moderate seas, with waves generally within the 0.6- to 2.1-meter range across Mindanao.
While these conditions are not uniformly hazardous, small fishing boats and other small craft operators should continue monitoring local marine conditions, particularly during thunderstorms when winds and waves can change quickly.
PAGASA emphasized that localized thunderstorms can bring conditions that differ substantially from the broader regional forecast.
Residents are therefore advised to monitor subsequent weather advisories and warnings, particularly when dark clouds, lightning, strong winds or intense rainfall develop in their areas.
The regional forecast was issued by the PAGASA Mindanao Regional Services Division (MINPRSD) in El Salvador City, Misamis Oriental, with forecasters identified as CEDGC.
PAGASA reminded the public that weather conditions can change rapidly and encouraged communities to remain updated through official forecasts and advisories.