July 12, 2026 | Mindanao
The southwest monsoon (Habagat), enhanced by Typhoon Bavi (formerly Inday), continues to bring widespread rains across Mindanao, prompting weather authorities to warn residents of possible flooding and landslides in several provinces.
In its 5:00 AM Regional Weather Forecast issued on Sunday, July 12, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao Regional Services Division (MINPRSD) said that while Typhoon Bavi remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), its circulation continues to strengthen the southwest monsoon affecting much of the island.
As of 3:00 PM Saturday, Typhoon Bavi was located approximately 680 kilometers north of Itbayat, Batanes at 26.8°N, 123.0°E, packing maximum sustained winds of 140 kilometers per hour, gusts reaching 170 kilometers per hour, and moving northwestward at 40 kilometers per hour.
Although the typhoon poses no direct landfall threat to Mindanao, PAGASA emphasized that its influence continues to enhance monsoonal rains over the southern Philippines.
Heavy Rains Expected Over Western and Central Mindanao
PAGASA forecasts that Zamboanga Peninsula, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), and SOCCSKSARGEN will experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms throughout the forecast period due to the southwest monsoon.
Weather specialists warned that moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall may trigger:
- Flash floods
- Landslides
- River swelling
- Localized flooding, particularly in low-lying and mountainous communities
Residents in flood-prone and landslide-prone areas are advised to remain alert as rainfall may intensify without prolonged warning during thunderstorms.
Rest of Mindanao to Experience Intermittent Rain
Meanwhile, the rest of Mindanao—including Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, and Caraga Region—will generally experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.
Although rainfall will be less widespread compared to western Mindanao, PAGASA cautioned that isolated thunderstorms may still produce heavy downpours capable of causing:
- Flash floods
- Landslides
- Reduced visibility for motorists
- Sudden rises in creeks and rivers
Areas Under Cloudy and Rainy Conditions
The following provinces and cities are expected to experience persistent cloudy skies accompanied by rain showers and thunderstorms:
Zamboanga Peninsula
- Zamboanga City
- Zamboanga del Norte
- Zamboanga del Sur
- Zamboanga Sibugay
- Isabela City
BARMM
- Cotabato City
- Basilan
- Lanao del Sur
- Sulu
- Tawi-Tawi
- Maguindanao del Norte
- Maguindanao del Sur
SOCCSKSARGEN
- North Cotabato
- South Cotabato
- Sultan Kudarat
- Sarangani
Daytime temperatures across these areas are expected to range between 23°C and 33°C, depending on location.
Intermittent Thunderstorms Across Eastern Mindanao
Residents in the following provinces should also prepare for intermittent rain showers and thunderstorms:
Northern Mindanao
- Bukidnon
- Camiguin
- Lanao del Norte
- Misamis Occidental
- Misamis Oriental
Davao Region
- Metro Davao
- Davao del Norte
- Davao de Oro
- Davao del Sur
- Davao Oriental
- Davao Occidental
Caraga Region
- Agusan del Norte
- Agusan del Sur
- Surigao del Norte
- Surigao del Sur
- Dinagat Islands
Temperatures in these areas will generally range from 19°C to 33°C, with rain most likely occurring during the afternoon and evening due to localized thunderstorms enhanced by the southwest monsoon.
Moderate Winds and Seas
Across Mindanao, winds are expected to remain moderate to occasionally strong, blowing from the south to southwest.
Sea conditions will generally be moderate, with wave heights ranging from 1.2 to 2.1 meters. However, coastal waters along Basilan and Surigao del Norte may occasionally become moderate to rough, prompting small fishing boats and other light vessels to exercise caution before venturing offshore.
Public Advised to Stay Alert
PAGASA urged local government units, disaster response agencies, and the public to closely monitor weather updates as rainfall patterns may rapidly change due to the continued influence of the southwest monsoon.
Communities living near rivers, creeks, coastal areas, and mountain slopes are encouraged to remain vigilant for signs of flooding and landslides, while motorists are advised to exercise caution when traveling through areas prone to flooding, reduced visibility, or road slips.
Weather authorities continue to monitor Typhoon Bavi’s movement outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility while emphasizing that the enhanced southwest monsoon remains the primary weather system affecting Mindanao over the next 24 hours.