GENERAL SANTOS CITY, Philippines — Cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms are expected across Mindanao on Thursday, October 15, as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) continues to affect the island, prompting weather authorities to warn of possible flash floods and landslides in areas experiencing moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall.
In its regional weather forecast issued at 5:00 a.m. on October 15, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), through its Mindanao Regional Services Division (MINPRSD), said the prevailing weather system would bring unsettled conditions across the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
The forecast is valid from 5:00 a.m. Thursday until 5:00 a.m. Friday, October 16.
PAGASA cautioned that moderate to, at times, heavy rains could trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in low-lying communities, areas near rivers and waterways, and locations with steep or unstable slopes.
Residents were advised to remain alert to changing weather conditions, especially during thunderstorms, when rainfall can intensify within a short period.
Tropical depression remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility
PAGASA also reported a tropical depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), located approximately 2,175 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon at 21.4 degrees north latitude and 142.8 degrees east longitude.
The weather disturbance had maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour near its center, with gusts reaching up to 55 kph. It was moving northwestward at 15 kph, based on the agency’s tropical cyclone bulletin information included in the regional forecast.
The tropical depression is outside PAR, while the ITCZ remains the identified weather system directly affecting Mindanao.
No direct impact on Mindanao from the tropical depression was specified in the regional forecast.
Rain and thunderstorms expected across Mindanao
Across the eastern sections of Mindanao, winds will generally be light to moderate, coming from the northeast to northwest, with slight to moderate sea conditions and wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 1.5 meters.
The rest of Mindanao will experience light to moderate winds from the northeast to southeast, with similar sea conditions and wave heights of 0.6 to 1.5 meters in coastal areas covered by the forecast.
Although the forecast indicates generally slight to moderate seas, fishermen, operators of small seacraft, and other coastal communities should continue monitoring local weather conditions, particularly during thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain.
Zamboanga Peninsula and Northern Mindanao
The provinces of Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, and Zamboanga Sibugay, along with Zamboanga City and Isabela City, are expected to experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
Forecast temperatures for the period range from 23°C to 35°C across these areas, with the highest daytime temperatures expected in Zamboanga City and Isabela City.
In Northern Mindanao, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Misamis Oriental will likewise experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
Bukidnon will have relatively cooler conditions, with temperatures forecast to range from 20°C to 31°C. Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Misamis Oriental will have temperatures generally ranging from 25°C to 31°C.
Motorists traveling through upland and mountainous areas should remain alert for reduced visibility, slippery roads, and possible rain-related hazards.
Davao Region faces continued unsettled weather
Metro Davao and the provinces of Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao Occidental are also expected to experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
Forecast temperatures across the region will range from 23°C to 34°C, depending on the locality and forecast period.
Davao Oriental is expected to have temperatures between 23°C and 34°C, while Davao de Oro will experience temperatures ranging from 23°C to 32°C. Davao Occidental will be relatively cooler, with temperatures forecast between 24°C and 30°C.
Winds will generally be light to moderate from the northeast to northwest across the Davao Region, with slight to moderate sea conditions in coastal areas.
Communities vulnerable to flooding and landslides should remain vigilant, particularly when thunderstorms bring persistent or intense rainfall.
SOCCSKSARGEN communities urged to prepare for rain
North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, and Sarangani are forecast to experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures across SOCCSKSARGEN are expected to range from 23°C to 34°C during the forecast period.
North Cotabato will have forecast temperatures between 24°C and 34°C, while South Cotabato and Sultan Kudarat will experience temperatures ranging from 23°C to 33°C. Sarangani will have temperatures between 26°C and 32°C.
Residents in flood-prone communities, particularly those living near rivers and drainage channels, should monitor water levels during periods of heavy rain. Those in landslide-prone areas should also watch for warning signs such as ground cracks, unusual soil movement, and sudden changes in water flow.
Caraga region to experience cloudy skies and thunderstorms
Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and the Dinagat Islands are also expected to experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
Forecast temperatures across Caraga will range from 23°C to 34°C. Agusan del Norte is expected to experience temperatures between 25°C and 34°C, while Agusan del Sur will have temperatures ranging from 23°C to 33°C.
Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands will likewise experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms, with forecast temperatures reaching up to 33°C in the latter two areas.
The combination of rainfall and local terrain conditions makes continued monitoring important for communities near waterways, steep slopes, and other areas susceptible to flooding and landslides.
BARMM provinces also included in the rain forecast
Across BARMM, Cotabato City, Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao del Norte, and Maguindanao del Sur are expected to experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will vary across the region, with Lanao del Sur expected to be among the cooler areas at 21°C to 29°C. Basilan may experience temperatures reaching 35°C, while Maguindanao del Sur may see temperatures ranging from 23°C to 34°C.
Winds will generally be light to moderate, coming from the northeast to southeast in most areas, although Lanao del Sur is forecast to experience winds from the northeast to northwest.
Coastal areas covered by the forecast will generally have slight to moderate sea conditions, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.5 meters where specified.
Residents advised to remain alert
With the ITCZ bringing widespread rain showers and thunderstorms, residents across Mindanao are advised to monitor official weather bulletins and follow instructions issued by local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
People in flood-prone areas should be prepared for possible rapid rises in water levels, while residents in landslide-susceptible communities should remain alert during prolonged or intense rainfall. Travel through flooded roads and swollen rivers should be avoided.
Fisherfolk and operators of small boats should assess local weather and sea conditions before going out to sea and remain cautious when thunderstorms develop.
PAGASA’s regional forecast covers conditions from Thursday morning through early Friday morning. Residents should continue checking subsequent advisories for updates as weather conditions may change.
For additional weather information, PAGASA advised the public to contact its offices at 8922-1992 and 8927-1335 or visit its official website at https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/.