MINDANAO — Cloudy skies, rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected across most parts of Mindanao on Sunday, October 4, 2026, as the region remains affected by the trough of Tropical Cyclone Choi-Wan, according to the latest regional weather forecast from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Mindanao Regional Services Division (PAGASA-MINPRSD).
The forecast, issued at 5:00 AM on October 4, 2026, is valid from 5:00 AM Sunday until 5:00 AM on Monday, October 5.
PAGASA said Mindanao will generally experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms during the forecast period.
The weather disturbance may also bring periods of moderate to at times heavy rainfall, prompting a warning that flash floods and landslides are possible, particularly in areas affected by prolonged or intense rains.
Residents in flood-prone communities, landslide-susceptible areas and locations near rivers, creeks and steep slopes are advised to remain alert to changing weather conditions and possible hazards associated with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
Western and Northern Mindanao
In the Zamboanga Peninsula, Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay and Isabela City are forecast to experience cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures in Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga Sibugay and Isabela City are expected to range from 25°C to 32°C during the first forecast period, increasing to as high as 34°C during the succeeding period. Zamboanga del Sur is forecast to have temperatures ranging from 23°C to 31°C, rising to as high as 33°C.
In Northern Mindanao, cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms are also expected in Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental.
Bukidnon may experience temperatures of 20°C to 29°C, increasing to 20°C to 30°C in the succeeding period. Camiguin may see temperatures ranging from 26°C to 33°C, rising to as high as 35°C.
Lanao del Norte is forecast to have temperatures of 21°C to 29°C, increasing to 21°C to 31°C, while Misamis Occidental may experience 24°C to 30°C, rising to 32°C.
Misamis Oriental is expected to record temperatures between 25°C and 29°C during the first period and 25°C to 32°C during the succeeding period.
Davao Region
The entire Davao Region is also expected to remain generally cloudy, with rainshowers and thunderstorms affecting Metro Davao, Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro and Davao Occidental.
Metro Davao may experience temperatures ranging from 24°C to 30°C, increasing to as high as 32°C. Davao del Norte is forecast to have 24°C to 32°C, with temperatures potentially reaching 34°C in the succeeding period.
Davao del Sur may record 22°C to 31°C, rising to 33°C, while Davao Oriental is expected to experience 22°C to 30°C, with temperatures reaching up to 31°C.
Davao de Oro may see temperatures between 23°C and 30°C, increasing to 32°C, while Davao Occidental is forecast to have 25°C to 31°C, rising to 33°C.
SOCCSKSARGEN
Cloudy skies accompanied by rainshowers and thunderstorms are likewise expected across SOCCSKSARGEN.
North Cotabato is forecast to experience temperatures ranging from 24°C to 31°C, increasing to 33°C during the succeeding period.
South Cotabato may see temperatures of 23°C to 29°C, rising to 31°C, while Sultan Kudarat is expected to record 23°C to 30°C, increasing to 32°C.
Sarangani is forecast to have temperatures ranging from 25°C to 32°C, with temperatures potentially reaching 34°C in the succeeding period.
Caraga Region
In Caraga, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Dinagat Islands are all expected to experience cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms.
Agusan del Norte may see temperatures of 25°C to 32°C, rising to 34°C. Agusan del Sur is forecast to have 24°C to 33°C, with temperatures reaching as high as 35°C.
Surigao del Norte may experience temperatures ranging from 26°C to 32°C, increasing to 35°C, while Surigao del Sur is expected to record 24°C to 32°C, rising to 34°C.
Dinagat Islands may see temperatures between 27°C and 33°C, with temperatures reaching up to 35°C during the succeeding forecast period.
BARMM Areas
The weather pattern will also affect areas of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
Cotabato City is forecast to experience cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms, with temperatures ranging from 25°C to 31°C and increasing to as high as 33°C.
Basilan may experience 24°C to 31°C, rising to 33°C, while Lanao del Sur is forecast to have temperatures between 23°C and 29°C, increasing to 31°C.
In the island provinces, Sulu is expected to experience temperatures of 26°C to 32°C, rising to 34°C, while Tawi-Tawi may see 26°C to 31°C, increasing to 33°C.
Maguindanao del Norte is forecast to experience 24°C to 32°C, with temperatures reaching as high as 35°C, while Maguindanao del Sur may record 24°C to 32°C, rising to 34°C.
Winds and Coastal Conditions
PAGASA-MINPRSD said winds across Mindanao are expected to remain light to moderate, generally coming from the west to southwest.
For coastal areas, seas are generally forecast to remain slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from approximately 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
The combination of thunderstorms, rainshowers and potentially heavier rainfall means that residents and motorists should remain alert, particularly when traveling during periods of intense rain and reduced visibility.
PAGASA’s regional forecast emphasizes the possibility of flash floods and landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains. Communities in areas historically prone to flooding or slope failures should continue monitoring official weather and disaster advisories.
The regional forecast covers the provinces and areas under the PAGASA Mindanao Regional Services Division and remains valid from 5:00 AM October 4 until 5:00 AM October 5, 2026.
For further weather information and inquiries, PAGASA-MINPRSD advised the public to monitor official PAGASA updates through its website and other official information channels.