GENERAL SANTOS CITY, Philippines — Cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms are expected across Mindanao from Saturday, October 10, through Sunday afternoon, October 11, as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) continues to influence the region, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
In its regional weather forecast for Mindanao, issued at 5 a.m. on October 10, PAGASA warned that moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall could trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in areas vulnerable to flooding, steep slopes, and rain-induced soil erosion.
The weather outlook covers the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the covered provinces and cities during the forecast period.
ITCZ to Bring Persistent Rainfall
PAGASA attributed the expected weather conditions to the ITCZ, a region where winds converge and promote cloud formation and rainfall.
The weather system is expected to bring cloudy skies accompanied by rain showers and thunderstorms across Mindanao, with rainfall intensity potentially varying from one locality to another.
The agency cautioned that moderate to at times heavy rains could result in flash floods and landslides. Residents in low-lying communities, areas near rivers and waterways, and locations with a history of flooding or landslides were advised to remain alert to changing weather conditions.
Local disaster risk reduction and management offices, meanwhile, are encouraged to monitor rainfall and river conditions and disseminate timely warnings to communities that may be affected.
Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao Face Rain Showers
In the Zamboanga Peninsula, Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, and Isabela City are expected to experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures across these areas are forecast to range from 24°C to 33°C during the forecast period, depending on the locality and time of day.
Similar conditions are expected in Northern Mindanao, including Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Misamis Oriental. Temperatures in these areas are forecast to range from 20°C to 31°C.
Bukidnon is expected to have some of the coolest conditions in the region, with temperatures potentially dropping to 20°C overnight or early in the morning.
Davao Region Braces for Thunderstorms
Metro Davao and the provinces of Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao Occidental are also forecast to experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures across the Davao Region are expected to range from 23°C to 33°C.
PAGASA’s outlook indicates that the rainy conditions could affect both urban and rural communities. Periods of heavy rainfall may reduce visibility and create hazardous conditions for motorists, particularly on roads prone to flooding or landslides.
Residents are advised to exercise caution when traveling during thunderstorms and to avoid crossing flooded roads or waterways.
SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga Also Under Rainy Outlook
The provinces of North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, and Sarangani, together with Cotabato City, are expected to experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures across the covered areas of SOCCSKSARGEN are forecast to range from 23°C to 33°C.
In Caraga, the same weather conditions are expected in Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands. Temperatures are forecast to range from 23°C to 34°C, with Dinagat Islands potentially recording the highest temperature range in the area covered by the forecast.
Despite the possibility of warm daytime temperatures, thunderstorms and periods of moderate to heavy rain may occur. Residents should not interpret warmer conditions as an indication that the risk of flooding has passed.
BARMM Provinces, Island Communities to Experience Rain
Across BARMM, cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms are expected in Cotabato City, Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao del Norte, and Maguindanao del Sur.
Temperatures are forecast to range from 22°C to 33°C across the covered localities.
Island and coastal communities are also advised to monitor local weather conditions, particularly when thunderstorms develop near their areas or along usual travel routes.
PAGASA’s forecast indicates light to moderate winds from the northwest to southwest across the region. Coastal waters in the covered marine areas are generally expected to remain slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 2.1 meters under the regional outlook.
However, mariners and operators of small boats should remain alert to locally changing conditions during thunderstorms and follow any applicable advisories issued by authorities.
Public Urged to Take Precautions
With rain showers and thunderstorms expected across much of Mindanao, residents are encouraged to take precautions against flooding, landslides, and other hazards associated with heavy rainfall.
People living near rivers, creeks, and flood-prone areas should watch for rapidly rising water levels and follow evacuation instructions from local authorities when necessary. Those in landslide-prone communities should remain alert to warning signs such as new ground cracks, leaning trees, unusual soil movement, or sudden changes in water flow.
Motorists are advised to slow down on wet roads, maintain a safe distance from other vehicles, and avoid driving through floodwaters of unknown depth. Outdoor activities should also be postponed or moved to safer locations when thunderstorms occur.
PAGASA emphasized through its forecast that flash floods and landslides are possible due to moderate to at times heavy rains. Residents should continue monitoring official weather bulletins and local government announcements for updates.
The regional forecast was issued by PAGASA’s Mindanao station, or MINPRSD, in El Salvador City, Misamis Oriental, at 5 a.m. on October 10, 2026, and is valid until 5 p.m. on October 11, 2026.
For additional weather information, the public may visit PAGASA’s official website at https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/ or contact the agency through its published telephone numbers, 8922-1992 and 8927-1335.