The recent decision of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to replace Ahod Balawag Ebrahim as the Chief Minister of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) with Maguindanao del Norte Governor Abdulraof Macacua has triggered significant political and security concerns. This move, which effectively alters the leadership of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA), raises several critical questions about governance, internal MILF dynamics, and the overall peace process in the region.
The Question of Consultation and Legitimacy
A key issue surrounding this leadership shift is whether the MILF leadership, particularly its central committee, was consulted before the decision was made. Ebrahim, as the MILF chairman, played a crucial role in BARMM’s formation following the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB). If the decision to replace him was unilateral, it could be seen as an imposition by the national government, potentially undermining the autonomy granted under the peace agreement.
Moreover, Macacua’s appointment, while maintaining MILF representation, does not necessarily translate to broad acceptance within the MILF ranks. If key MILF figures perceive this change as an erosion of their influence, it could create deeper factionalism within the group, destabilizing both governance and security in the region.
Why the Leadership Change?
The timing of the decision suggests that Marcos Jr. may have been motivated by ongoing issues in the region. Among the key concerns are:
- Escalating Violence Among MILF Commanders – Recent months have seen a rise in violent clashes between MILF-affiliated groups, causing displacement and casualties. The inability to control these skirmishes may have led to doubts about Ebrahim’s leadership and capacity to maintain order.
- Corruption Allegations – Accusations of mismanagement and corruption within the BARMM government have surfaced. While no formal charges have been made, dissatisfaction among stakeholders may have influenced the decision to bring in a new leader.
- Political Strategy for 2025 Elections – The decision could also be a strategic move to consolidate allies ahead of BARMM’s first regional elections in October 2025. With Macacua running for a congressional seat in Maguindanao del Norte, his appointment could be part of a broader political maneuver to shape the region’s future power structure.
Potential Consequences: Stability or Division?
The immediate concern is how the MILF and its broader membership will respond. While Macacua is a senior MILF leader, his ascension may not be welcomed by all factions within the organization. If a significant segment of the MILF perceives this as a betrayal of the original peace agreement’s spirit, it could lead to internal fractures and even armed conflict.
A worst-case scenario would be renewed unrest or a push by disaffected MILF members to break away from the peace process. Such an outcome would not only endanger the fragile stability in BARMM but could also invite intervention from extremist elements that have historically exploited governance failures in Mindanao.
Conversely, if handled well, Macacua’s appointment could usher in a period of political consolidation and improved governance. If he demonstrates strong leadership, enforces reforms, and ensures inclusivity, his tenure might reinforce rather than weaken the BARMM framework.
The Path Forward
The success of this transition largely depends on how both the national government and MILF leadership navigate the situation. For stability to prevail, President Marcos Jr. must ensure that the transition process is consultative and inclusive, rather than appearing as a unilateral imposition. The MILF, on the other hand, must carefully manage internal dissent and prioritize the broader goal of sustaining the peace agreement.
With the 2025 elections drawing near, the effectiveness of BARMM’s leadership will be under greater scrutiny. If Macacua and his administration can address governance challenges, reduce violence, and maintain the region’s autonomy in good faith, the transition could be a stepping stone toward a more stable Bangsamoro. However, if the leadership shake-up leads to internal discord, the risk of renewed conflict cannot be ignored.
