October 2, 2025 – Mindanao — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued its latest regional weather forecast, warning residents across Mindanao of possible flash floods and landslides due to localized thunderstorms, even as Tropical Storm “Paolo” continues to move closer to Luzon.
As of 3:00 AM today, the center of Paolo was estimated at 725 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon, packing maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness reaching up to 80 kph. The storm is moving west-northwestward at 20 kph. Although its direct effects are concentrated in Luzon, Mindanao will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms throughout the day.
PAGASA warned of possible flash floods and landslides during severe thunderstorms, particularly in flood-prone and mountainous areas. Winds will be light to moderate, ranging from southeast to southwest, while coastal waters across Mindanao will generally be slight to moderate, with wave heights from 0.6 to 1.5 meters.
Regional Conditions Across Mindanao
- Zamboanga Peninsula (Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, and Isabela City) is forecast to experience partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy skies with chances of rainshowers or thunderstorms. Daytime temperatures will range from 23°C to 34°C, while seas remain slight to moderate.
- Northern Mindanao (Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Misamis Oriental) will also encounter partly cloudy to cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to range between 20°C and 32°C. Winds will be light to moderate, with coastal waters slight to moderate.
- Davao Region (Metro Davao, Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, and Davao Occidental) can expect similar conditions of partly cloudy to cloudy skies and localized thunderstorms. Maximum daytime temperatures may reach up to 33°C in some provinces.
- SOCCSKSARGEN (North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, and Sarangani) will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms and light to moderate winds. Temperatures could peak at 33°C during the day.
- Caraga Region (Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands) is forecast to have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening. Daytime highs will range from 24°C to 33°C.
- Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) including Cotabato City, Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao del Norte, and Maguindanao del Sur, will see similar weather conditions—partly cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms. Temperatures will generally range between 20°C and 33°C.
Public Advisory
Authorities advise residents, especially those living near riverbanks, coastal areas, and mountain slopes, to remain vigilant for possible flooding or landslides triggered by heavy rainfall from thunderstorms. Fisherfolk and small sea vessels are also reminded to take precautionary measures, as seas will be slight to moderate but may become rougher during thunderstorms.
PAGASA said Tropical Storm Paolo is not expected to make landfall in Mindanao but emphasized that its outer circulation may enhance localized thunderstorms in the region.
For more information and queries, the public may contact PAGASA at 8922-1992 and 8927-1335 or visit the official website at bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph.