MINDANAO — The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will continue to affect Mindanao on Monday, September 28, bringing cloudy skies, rainshowers and thunderstorms across several areas, according to the regional weather forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao PRSD.
The forecast, issued at 5:00 AM on September 28, 2026, is valid from 5:00 AM Monday until 5:00 AM Tuesday, September 29.
PAGASA said the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Lanao del Sur and Basilan are expected to experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms due to the prevailing ITCZ.
The agency warned that flash floods and landslides are possible, particularly in areas that receive moderate to at times heavy rainfall.
For the rest of Mindanao, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected. PAGASA likewise warned of possible flash floods or landslides in areas affected by severe thunderstorms.
The weather disturbance is expected to keep conditions unsettled in various parts of the island throughout the forecast period.
Western and Northern Mindanao
Across the Zamboanga Peninsula, cloudy conditions with rainshowers and thunderstorms are forecast in Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay and Isabela City. Zamboanga City may experience partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy at times, with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures are forecast to range from 25°C to 35°C, depending on the locality and time of day.
In Northern Mindanao, cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected over Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental.
Bukidnon could record temperatures between 19°C and 34°C, while Camiguin may reach 35°C. Lanao del Norte is expected to be among the cooler areas, with temperatures ranging from 21°C to 29°C.
Davao Region
The Davao Region is expected to experience partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy at times, with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
This forecast covers Davao City and the provinces of Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro and Davao Occidental.
Temperatures could reach 34°C in Davao del Norte and Davao de Oro, while Davao del Sur may record highs of around 32°C. Davao Oriental is expected to have temperatures between 23°C and 32°C.
Residents are advised to remain alert for sudden thunderstorms, particularly because intense rainfall associated with thunderstorms may trigger localized flooding and landslides.
Caraga to See Cloudier and Wetter Conditions
The Caraga Region is among the areas expected to experience more persistent cloud cover and rainfall.
Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Dinagat Islands are forecast to have cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures across the region are expected to range from about 24°C to 35°C, with Agusan del Sur and Agusan del Norte potentially reaching the mid-30s.
Given the possibility of moderate to heavy rainfall, communities in flood- and landslide-prone locations are urged to remain vigilant, particularly during periods of prolonged or intense rain.
SOCCSKSARGEN and Cotabato Areas
Parts of SOCCSKSARGEN will generally have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
North Cotabato could experience temperatures from 23°C to 34°C, while South Cotabato is forecast at 22°C to 32°C. Sultan Kudarat may reach 34°C, while Sarangani could record temperatures between 25°C and 33°C.
In Cotabato City, partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy at times, with rainshowers or thunderstorms, are expected, with temperatures ranging from 24°C to 33°C.
BARMM Areas Face Thunderstorm Risk
Several areas of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) are also expected to experience rainshowers and thunderstorms.
Basilan and Lanao del Sur are forecast to have cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms. Lanao del Sur could experience temperatures between 23°C and 32°C, while Basilan may reach 32°C.
Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao del Norte and Maguindanao del Sur are expected to experience partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy at times, with rainshowers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures in these areas may reach 33°C to 34°C during the forecast period.
Winds and Coastal Conditions
PAGASA said light to moderate winds from the southeast to southwest will prevail over Mindanao.
Coastal waters are expected to remain at slight to moderate conditions, with wave heights generally ranging from 0.6 to 1.5 meters.
Fisherfolk, boat operators and other coastal communities are advised to take the prevailing weather conditions into account, particularly during thunderstorms and periods of stronger winds or heavier rainfall.
Flood and Landslide Threat Remains
The continuing influence of the ITCZ means that rainfall may occur repeatedly over some areas, while thunderstorms could produce short periods of intense rain.
PAGASA specifically warned of the possibility of flash floods and landslides in areas affected by moderate to at times heavy rainfall, while severe thunderstorms in other parts of Mindanao may also trigger similar hazards.
Residents living near rivers, streams, steep slopes and other areas historically vulnerable to flooding or landslides are advised to monitor official weather and disaster advisories and to follow instructions from local authorities when conditions deteriorate.
The regional forecast covers the period from 5:00 AM September 28 until 5:00 AM September 29, 2026.