DAVAO CITY, Philippines — Several areas across Mindanao are expected to experience cloudy skies, rainshowers and thunderstorms on September 29, 2026, as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) continues to influence weather conditions over the region.
Based on the PAGASA Mindanao Regional Weather Forecast for MINPRSD, the forecast is valid from 5:00 a.m. on September 29 until 5:00 a.m. on September 30, with weather conditions varying across the different regions and provinces of Mindanao.
Cloudy, Rainy Conditions in Western and Northern Mindanao
Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao and Caraga are expected to experience cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms due to the ITCZ.
PAGASA warned that flash floods and landslides are possible, particularly in areas that receive moderate to at times heavy rainfall. The threat may increase during periods of severe thunderstorms.
In Zamboanga City, temperatures are forecast to range from 24°C to 33°C, while Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga Sibugay may also reach highs of 33°C.
Isabela City is expected to record temperatures between 25°C and 33°C.
Across Northern Mindanao, cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms are likewise expected. Bukidnon may experience temperatures of 21°C to 32°C, while Camiguin is forecast at 23°C to 31°C.
Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental may see temperatures ranging from 23°C to 32°C.
Davao Region May See Intermittent Rain and Thunderstorms
The Davao Region is expected to have partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy at times, with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.
In Metro Davao, temperatures are forecast to range from 24°C to 33°C.
Davao del Norte and Davao del Sur are also expected to record temperatures of 24°C to 33°C, while Davao de Oro may experience cooler conditions at 23°C to 34°C.
Davao Oriental is forecast to have temperatures between 24°C and 33°C, with moderate winds from the south to southwest and moderate coastal waters.
Davao Occidental may experience temperatures of 24°C to 32°C, also with moderate southwesterly winds and moderate coastal conditions.
Caraga to Remain Generally Cloudy and Rainy
The Caraga Region is among the areas expected to experience more persistent cloudy conditions.
Agusan del Norte is forecast to reach 34°C, while Agusan del Sur may record temperatures of 23°C to 33°C.
Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Dinagat Islands are likewise expected to experience cloudy skies with rainshowers and thunderstorms, with maximum temperatures reaching 34°C.
Coastal waters in most of Caraga are expected to remain slight to moderate, with light to moderate winds generally coming from the south to southwest.
SOCCSKSARGEN, BARMM Also Face Thunderstorm Threat
In SOCCSKSARGEN, partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy at times, with rainshowers or thunderstorms, are expected across North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat and Sarangani.
Temperatures may reach 33°C in North Cotabato and South Cotabato, while Sultan Kudarat and Sarangani may reach 33°C and 32°C, respectively.
In the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), similar conditions are expected in Cotabato City, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao del Norte and Maguindanao del Sur.
Lanao del Sur is expected to be among the cooler areas, with temperatures ranging from 21°C to 30°C.
Cotabato City may reach 33°C, while Basilan, Sulu and Maguindanao del Norte may reach 33°C. Tawi-Tawi is forecast to range from 25°C to 32°C.
Winds and Coastal Conditions
PAGASA said winds across Mindanao will generally be light to moderate from the south to southwest, with slight to moderate seas measuring around 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
However, Davao Oriental, Davao Occidental, Sultan Kudarat and Sarangani are expected to experience moderate winds and moderate coastal waters.
Residents in coastal communities, fisherfolk and small-craft operators are advised to remain alert to changing weather and sea conditions, particularly during thunderstorms.
Floods and Landslides Remain a Concern
With the ITCZ bringing rain and thunderstorms to large portions of Mindanao, PAGASA warned of the possibility of flash floods and landslides, especially in areas affected by moderate to heavy rainfall or severe thunderstorms.
Residents living near rivers, waterways, steep slopes and other hazard-prone areas should remain vigilant for sudden changes in weather conditions and follow advisories from local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
The regional forecast was issued by PAGASA Mindanao (MINPRSD) in El Salvador City, Misamis Oriental, and covers conditions from 5:00 a.m. September 29 to 5:00 a.m. September 30, 2026.