Mindanao is expected to experience generally cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms on October 6, 2026, as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) continues to influence weather conditions across the region.
According to the PAGASA Mindanao Regional Services Division (MINPRSD) forecast issued at 5:00 AM on October 6, periods of moderate to at times heavy rainfall may occur in several areas. PAGASA warned that these conditions could trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in areas vulnerable to flooding and rain-induced slope failures.
The regional forecast calls for light to moderate winds generally coming from the southwest to west, with coastal waters expected to remain slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from about 0.6 to 1.8 meters. Residents in coastal communities, fishers and small sea vessels are advised to exercise caution, particularly during thunderstorms and periods of stronger rainfall and winds.
Western Mindanao
In the Zamboanga Peninsula, Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay and Isabela City are forecast to have cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.
Temperatures are expected to range from 23°C to 32°C, depending on the locality. Zamboanga City could reach 31°C, while Zamboanga del Norte may climb to 32°C. Zamboanga del Sur is expected to remain cooler, with temperatures between 23°C and 27°C.
Northern Mindanao
Rain showers and thunderstorms are also expected across Northern Mindanao, including Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental.
Forecast temperatures range from 22°C to 33°C, with Misamis Oriental and Lanao del Norte potentially reaching 33°C during the daytime. Bukidnon will remain relatively cooler, with temperatures of about 22°C to 30°C.
Davao Region
The entire Davao Region is likewise expected to experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
In Metro Davao, temperatures may range from 25°C to 34°C, while Davao del Norte could reach 34°C. Davao del Sur is forecast to have temperatures between 21°C and 32°C, while Davao Oriental may record 21°C to 31°C.
Davao de Oro is expected to experience temperatures of 22°C to 32°C, while Davao Occidental may range from 23°C to 32°C.
SOCCSKSARGEN
Cloudy skies, rain showers and thunderstorms are also forecast in North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat and Sarangani.
Temperatures could range from 19°C to 33°C. South Cotabato is expected to be among the cooler areas, with temperatures between 19°C and 28°C, while Sarangani may reach 33°C during the daytime.
Caraga Region
In Caraga, cloudy conditions with rain showers and thunderstorms are expected in Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and the Dinagat Islands.
Daytime temperatures could reach 35°C in Agusan del Norte, making it one of the warmest areas in the regional forecast. Agusan del Sur may reach 34°C, while Surigao del Norte and Dinagat Islands could also reach 34°C.
Surigao del Sur is expected to remain somewhat cooler, with temperatures ranging from 21°C to 31°C.
BARMM Areas
The forecast also covers the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, where cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms are expected in Cotabato City, Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao del Norte and Maguindanao del Sur.
Temperatures may range from 23°C to 34°C, with Maguindanao del Sur potentially reaching 34°C during the daytime. Basilan and Lanao del Sur are expected to have lower daytime temperatures of around 29°C.
Floods and Landslides Remain Possible
With scattered rains and thunderstorms expected across virtually all parts of Mindanao, PAGASA’s warning on possible flash floods and landslides remains particularly important for communities located near rivers, streams, low-lying areas and steep or mountainous terrain.
Residents are advised to remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions, especially during periods of heavy rainfall. Local disaster risk reduction and management offices may also issue area-specific warnings should rainfall intensify.
Motorists are urged to exercise caution on roads where visibility may suddenly deteriorate or where water may accumulate, while communities in landslide-prone areas should remain vigilant for signs of slope instability.