DAVAO CITY — Most parts of Mindanao are expected to experience cloudy skies, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms from Friday morning, October 2, through Saturday morning, October 3, as the trough of Tropical Cyclone Choi-Wan continues to influence the region, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
In its 5:00 a.m. Regional Weather Forecast for Mindanao (MINPRSD) issued Friday, PAGASA warned that moderate to at times heavy rainfall may trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in areas that receive persistent or intense rain.
The weather agency forecast generally cloudy conditions with rain showers and thunderstorms across the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
Residents in flood-prone, low-lying and landslide-susceptible communities were advised to remain alert as rainfall may become locally heavy during thunderstorms.
Zamboanga Peninsula
Cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast throughout Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay and Isabela City.
Winds are expected to be light to moderate from the northwest to west, with coastal waters generally slight to moderate.
Temperatures are forecast to reach 30°C in the daytime, with overnight and early-morning temperatures generally ranging from 24°C to 25°C.
For the following 24-hour period, maximum temperatures may rise to between 33°C and 34°C, depending on the locality.
Northern Mindanao
Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental will likewise experience cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
Bukidnon is forecast to have temperatures between 18°C and 29°C, rising to as high as 32°C during the succeeding period.
Lanao del Norte is expected to range from 23°C to 30°C, while Misamis Occidental and Misamis Oriental are forecast at 24°C to 30°C and 25°C to 30°C, respectively.
Camiguin is expected to experience temperatures of 25°C to 30°C.
Winds over Northern Mindanao will generally be light to moderate from the northwest to west, with slight to moderate seas in coastal areas.
Davao Region
Cloudy conditions accompanied by rain showers and thunderstorms are expected over Metro Davao, Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro and Davao Occidental.
Most areas will experience temperatures of around 24°C to 30°C during the initial forecast period, with daytime temperatures potentially reaching 31°C to 32°C in the succeeding period.
Davao Oriental will experience slightly different wind conditions, with light to moderate winds coming from the north to northwest.
The rest of the Davao Region will generally experience winds from the northwest to west.
Coastal waters will remain slight to moderate.
SOCCSKSARGEN
Rain showers and thunderstorms are also forecast across North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat and Sarangani.
North Cotabato and South Cotabato are expected to experience temperatures ranging from 24°C to 30°C, while Sultan Kudarat could see temperatures between 21°C and 30°C.
Sarangani is forecast to have temperatures of 25°C to 30°C.
Maximum temperatures during the succeeding forecast period could reach 32°C in North Cotabato, South Cotabato and Sarangani, while Sultan Kudarat could also reach around 32°C.
Winds will generally be light to moderate from the northwest to west.
Caraga
The entire Caraga Region is also expected to remain under cloudy skies with rain showers and thunderstorms.
Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Dinagat Islands will experience generally light to moderate winds.
Most of the eastern portions of Mindanao, including Caraga, will have winds from the north to northwest, while Dinagat Islands will experience winds from the northwest to west.
Temperatures will generally range from 24°C to 30°C in Agusan del Norte and Agusan del Sur, while Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur could range from 25°C to 30°C and 26°C to 30°C, respectively.
Dinagat Islands is forecast to experience temperatures of 26°C to 30°C.
Daytime temperatures in the succeeding period may reach 32°C to 33°C.
Coastal waters across the region are expected to remain slight to moderate.
BARMM
Cloudy skies, rain showers and thunderstorms are also forecast across the Bangsamoro region, including Cotabato City, Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao del Norte and Maguindanao del Sur.
Temperatures during the initial forecast period are expected to range from 23°C to 30°C, depending on the area.
Lanao del Sur could record the coolest conditions, with temperatures ranging from 23°C to 29°C, while Maguindanao del Sur is forecast at 25°C to 30°C.
During the succeeding period, daytime temperatures could reach 31°C to 33°C in several areas.
Winds will generally be light to moderate from the northwest to west, with slight to moderate seas in coastal areas.
Moderate to Heavy Rainfall Raises Flood and Landslide Risk
PAGASA’s primary concern for Mindanao is the possibility of moderate to at times heavy rainfall associated with the trough of Tropical Cyclone Choi-Wan.
While the forecast does not indicate continuous heavy rain across the entire region, thunderstorms can produce sudden and intense downpours over localized areas.
Such rainfall can quickly increase water levels in rivers and waterways and cause flooding in low-lying communities. Saturated slopes may also become vulnerable to landslides, particularly in mountainous and previously rain-affected areas.
Residents are therefore urged to monitor local weather conditions and advisories, particularly when thunderstorms develop over or near their communities.
Motorists should also exercise caution on roads affected by heavy rain, reduced visibility, flooding or landslides.
Seas Remain Slight to Moderate
PAGASA said the eastern sections of Mindanao will generally experience light to moderate winds from the north to northwest, with slight to moderate seas measuring around 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
The rest of Mindanao will have light to moderate winds from the northwest to west, with coastal waters likewise ranging from slight to moderate.
Despite the generally manageable sea conditions, fishermen, boat operators and other coastal communities are advised to remain alert during thunderstorms, when conditions can change rapidly.
The forecast is valid from 5:00 a.m. on October 2 until 5:00 a.m. on October 3, 2026.
PAGASA reminded the public to continue monitoring official weather bulletins and local advisories, especially in communities vulnerable to flooding and landslides.