Climate Conflict Action | 10 September 2025
While the nation’s attention is consumed by congressional hearings into corruption in Manila, a storm is brewing in Mindanao that threatens to unravel years of fragile peace. The first parliamentary elections in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), long hailed as the milestone of a successful transition, may instead become the crucible of instability—costing lives, displacing communities, and endangering national security.
Two powerful forces now converge to form this storm. The first is the deepening split within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), where rival blocs are locked in an increasingly bitter political struggle. On one side is the established leadership under Murad Ebrahim, President of the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP). On the other is Abdulraof “Sammy” Macacua, UBJP Secretary General, who now also serves as BARMM’s Chief Minister and is consolidating his own political base. What began as policy disagreements has hardened into factionalism, complicating governance and raising the specter of armed conflict.
The second storm is the quiet but steady resurgence of extremist groups, whose recruitment among disillusioned youth in Lanao and Basilan signals a dangerous backslide. Together, these forces expose the Bangsamoro’s first experiment in parliamentary democracy to violent disruption.
Warning Signs of Escalation
Climate Conflict Action’s monitoring reveals a worrying buildup of red flags:
- Illicit firearms on the rise, suggesting preparations for armed confrontation. Local initiatives by the Armed Forces and LGUs have shown that voluntary surrender and recovery of illicit weapons can work in the short term, but without institutional recognition within the peace process, these efforts remain limited in long-term impact. CCAA’s Critical Events Monitoring System has already recorded 30 gun-related incidents since the start of the COMELEC gun ban, nearly half of them in Maguindanao del Sur.
- Credible reports of extremist recruitment inside schools and madrasahs, particularly in Munai, Tangkal, and Salvador in Lanao del Norte, and in Lumbayanague and Marantao in Lanao del Sur.
- Recent attacks on law enforcement by extremist cells in Basilan.
- Escalating tensions in ancestral domain areas of Non-Moro Indigenous Peoples (NMIPs), where the presence of MILF forces raises the risk of displacement and renewed violence.
These developments cannot be dismissed as isolated incidents. Taken together, they amount to storm signals flashing across Mindanao’s horizon. If neglected, they could spiral into armed clashes, trigger mass displacement, and erode the credibility of BARMM’s transition.
Decisive Action Needed Now
As an organization that has long worked with conflict-affected communities, CCAA warns that preventive measures must be taken immediately—not after the first blood is shed. CCAA’s Executive Director, Dr. Francisco “Pancho” J. Lara Jr., outlines urgent steps:
- Strict enforcement of the election gun ban—with no exemptions. All firearms should be held solely by law enforcement officers, without special favors for political actors.
- End impunity in gun ban violations—no conflict-resolution mechanisms like CCCH or AHJAG should override the law.
- Establish independent monitoring systems—trusted hotlines and citizen-reporting platforms can prevent escalation before violence spreads.
- Sanctuaries for high-risk individuals and NMIPs—credible safe spaces must be set up before more lives are lost.
- Prepare humanitarian response systems now—to ensure food, water, health services, and schooling for displaced communities.
These are not optional measures; they are prerequisites to safeguard BARMM’s first democratic election.
The Rift Within MILF
The widening rift within MILF is not merely about delayed decommissioning of weapons. As Dr. Lara notes, “The stalled decommissioning process is indeed a major issue, but there are deeper structural problems at play.” These include BARMM’s weak governance capacity, reliance on coordination frameworks rather than state authority, and the national government’s repeated extensions of the transition. Each delay has deepened frustration and cast doubt on the region’s readiness for self-rule.
Perceptions of favoritism also fuel instability. Allegations that factions aligned with Chief Minister Macacua receive disproportionate support from OPAPRU have circulated widely. While such claims exaggerate reality, they reveal how political patronage undermines trust in the peace process. As Lara stresses, “If left unresolved, this division carries the risk of escalating into renewed armed conflict.”
The first election will test whether UBJP, under President Murad and Secretary General Macacua, can govern as a unified bloc. But unity is no longer guaranteed. The danger is not that UBJP will lose, but that its internal rivalries will translate into parliamentary infighting, legislative gridlock, or localized rido among commanders.
Youth at the Crossroads
The gravest danger lies with the youth. In provinces like Lanao and Basilan, persistent grievances remain the primary driver of extremist recruitment. Systemic gaps in governance, limited access to quality education, and the lack of sustainable livelihood opportunities continue to leave young people vulnerable to extremist narratives. For many, the question is no longer about aligning with one MILF faction or another, but whether to turn instead to groups like DI.
This is not a hypothetical risk—it is already happening. Climate Conflict Action’s monitoring shows that instability within BARMM has begun triggering a resurgence of extremist movements that thrive on frustration and disillusionment. As Dr. Francisco J. Lara Jr., CCA’s Executive Director, warns: “Persistent grievances are driving recruitment. Unless BARMM can deliver real opportunities and hope for young people, extremist groups will continue to exploit their disillusionment.”
Deradicalization efforts by government and civil society, while important, have so far fallen short. The persistence of recruitment reflects a weakening of the traditional role of clan and religious leaders in curbing extremism. Unlike other contexts where groups such as Al-Qaeda or ISIS emerged primarily through religious ideology, in Lanao and other parts of BARMM the training ground for DI has been rooted in rido—clan conflicts that provide both the conditions and the justification for sustained violence.
Historically, clans acted as fortresses, protecting their members not only from external threats but also from harmful ideologies. Yet in areas such as Marawi, kinship ties have increasingly facilitated radicalization. Recruitment now often takes place among relatives, with family structures inadvertently becoming gateways to extremism rather than barriers.
If left unaddressed, these dynamics could entrench a new generation of disillusioned youth in extremist movements. The failure to provide real opportunities for education, livelihood, and political participation risks creating not just a temporary spike in recruitment, but a structural pipeline feeding violence into the Bangsamoro for decades to come.
The Plight of Indigenous Peoples
No community illustrates the stakes more starkly than the NMIPs. The deaths of Teduray leaders—88 recorded in the last report—expose how Indigenous lives remain expendable in the shadows of political struggle. Proposals for a Peace Sanctuary, such as BTA Resolution 712, may offer temporary refuge, but sanctuaries must not become new conflict flashpoints. They must provide not only protection but also food, shelter, education, and livelihood support. For BARMM’s legitimacy, protecting NMIPs is not charity—it is a test of justice.
A National Concern
The fate of BARMM’s election is not a regional matter; it is a national concern. If violence mars the polls, the credibility of the Bangsamoro Parliament will be stained at birth. Worse, instability in Mindanao will once again ripple outward, undermining peace, democracy, and development across the Philippines.
Other countries’ experiences show the danger: in Nepal and Indonesia, weakly enforced elections in transitional regions gave rise to disillusioned youth movements and renewed cycles of violence. BARMM must not follow this path.
A Final Warning
The storm signals are flashing red. The country can no longer afford complacency, or the assumption that the peace process will sustain itself. As Dr. Lara warns, “The Bangsamoro’s fragile transition cannot withstand neglect.”
The first Bangsamoro Parliament must not be born in blood and doubt. The nation must act—enforcing laws firmly, protecting the vulnerable, and closing the space for extremists—before it is too late. Climate Conflict Action Asia’s warning carries weight: it is rooted in decades of conflict monitoring and peacebuilding work across Mindanao. To ignore it now would be to gamble not only with the Bangsamoro’s future, but with the nation’s peace and stability as a whole.