May 11, 2025 | Cotabato City
As the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) braces for its most contentious election since the 2019 plebiscite, reports of escalating violence, intimidation, and unchecked militarization have raised urgent calls for stronger, independent monitoring systems that can scrutinize not just the conduct of the polls—but the deeper social costs of electoral violence.
According to Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA), which launched its Boto Bangsamoro monitoring platform this week, over 219 deaths linked to electoral violence have already been recorded since the filing of candidacies began on October 1, 2024—nearly all due to gun-related incidents. This figure has surpassed the 165 deaths tallied during the 2023 barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan elections and indicates what CCAA calls an “imminent and potentially catastrophic” threat to democratic processes in the region.
But beyond the headlines of shootings and bombings, CCAA and its civil society allies warn that the 2025 midterm and parliamentary elections are exposing the fragile underpinnings of democracy in the Bangsamoro. At the center of the issue is the absence of a fully empowered, impartial, and conflict-aware election monitoring body—one that can critically assess not only the incidents of violence but the systemic causes and corrosive consequences of unchecked coercion during elections.
“Election monitoring cannot be limited to vote counts or logistical delays. We need institutions that can map patterns of violence, expose intimidation, and name the costs in lives, livelihoods, and legitimacy,” said a CCAA representative. “What’s unfolding in BARMM is not just a security issue—it’s a governance crisis.”
An Election Under Siege
CCAA’s reports, validated by its Early Response Network (ERN) and the Critical Events Monitoring System (CEMS), paint a grim picture of the electoral climate. Armed groups continue to erect unauthorized checkpoints, voters are blocked from reaching polling stations, and political actors openly flout the election gun ban—often with impunity.
In Maguindanao del Sur, where a bomb exploded near a vice gubernatorial candidate’s compound on May 4, police and military presence has failed to deter further violence. Meanwhile, in towns like Shariff Aguak and Datu Odin Sinsuat, civil society monitors have flagged reports of lockdowns and coercive orders allegedly issued by barangay officials, warning residents not to vote or barring access to certain areas based on political affiliation.
The Philippine National Police (PNP) has since deployed additional forces, including 105 officers from Region 2 to serve as Special Electoral Boards after 30 public school teachers in the region withdrew from election duty, citing threats to their lives.
Why Independent Monitoring Matters
While COMELEC has institutional mechanisms for overseeing elections, critics say the current system lacks the independence, depth, and community trust required to tackle the complex interplay of political violence, clan rivalry, and state collusion in BARMM.
“What’s missing is a body with the mandate and moral authority to tell uncomfortable truths,” said an election expert from Cotabato City. “That includes exposing the role of powerful actors—whether politicians, rebel commanders, or state forces—who may be undermining the electoral process from within.”
CCAA’s Boto Bangsamoro initiative seeks to fill this gap by providing real-time, conflict-sensitive updates directly to media, humanitarian responders, and governance actors. By leveraging community-based monitors and thematic conflict analysis, it aims to go beyond tallying incidents—to reveal the broader patterns of fear, suppression, and lawlessness that define the Bangsamoro electoral landscape.
On election day, the platform will issue updates every three hours from 9 AM to 9 PM, alerting authorities and citizens to emerging hotspots and security concerns.
From Militarization to Mistrust
The increasing militarization of elections, CCAA warns, risks pushing BARMM back to a time when elections were synonymous with armed confrontation and state-backed suppression. In some areas, polling centers now resemble garrison outposts more than democratic spaces, a development that erodes public trust and sends the wrong message about the peace process.
“When people fear that their vote might cost them their life, that’s not democracy—it’s coercion with a ballot box,” said a community leader from Lanao del Sur. “And when state forces appear complicit or silent in the face of abuse, we must question whose interests they serve.”
A Call to Action
CCAA has outlined four urgent steps to de-escalate the crisis:
- Enforce the gun ban with transparent checkpoint standards and full accountability for violators—regardless of political affiliation or organizational ties.
- Publish and monitor COMELEC-authorized checkpoints to prevent illegal blockades and voter suppression.
- Ensure strict neutrality of COMELEC and security forces, avoiding politically motivated reshuffling and enforcement.
- Empower independent monitors, including international observers, while ensuring local engagement and cultural sensitivity to prevent backlash.
Ultimately, the fate of the 2025 Bangsamoro elections hinges not just on ballots cast but on the credibility of the process itself. Without independent, conflict-sensitive oversight and decisive institutional reform, the region risks a backslide into distrust, division, and delayed development.
“The Bangsamoro people deserve more than a peaceful day at the polls,” CCAA emphasized. “They deserve a process that reflects their voice, not the shadows of the gunmen who silence it.”